Posted by Ilya Somin:
Tentative Thoughts on The Russia-Georgia Cease-Fire Agreement:
http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2008_08_10-2008_08_16.shtml#1218577718
Russia and Georgia have apparently [1]reached a ceasefire agreement
mediated by French president Nicolas Sarkozy. According to CNN, the
deal provides form:
Russian agreements to conclude all military operations, return
Russian armed forces to the line preceding the beginning of
operations and not use force again in Georgia.
In return, Georgia would return its armed forces to their normal
and permanent locations.
Both sides would provide free access for humanitarian assistance;
and international consideration of the issues of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia would be undertaken.
If this agreement holds (a big if), it's a better outcome than I would
have expected. Georgia's democratic government will remain in place,
despite Russia's previous determination to overthrow it. The Russians
will not have destroyed Georgia's oil pipeline to Europe (the most
important pipeline in the region that doesn't pass through Russian or
Iranian territory). And Russia will renounce future use of force
against Georgia and reduce its forces in the secessionist regions of
Abkhazia and South Ossetia to their prewar levels. I am skeptical that
the Russians will fully respect the last two commitments. Nonetheless,
the outcome could have been far worse.
Why did Russia accept an arrangement that falls so far short of their
maximum objectives? There is no way to know for sure. I suspect that
part of the reason is the strong resistance put up by the Georgian
armed forces, which although much smaller than Russia's are of fairly
high quality thanks in part to US training. The quality of the Russian
military remains iffy at best, and Vladimir Putin may have reasoned
that complete subjugation of Georgia would be a long and costly
process. After all, this is the same Russian army that took years to
subdue Chechnya, a much weaker and more isolated adversary than
Georgia.
Putin may also have been influenced by the apparent unity of the West
in opposing the Russian invasion. France and Germany - key European
states that opposed the US over the Iraq War - were largely on the
same page with us here. This newfound unity might help cub Russian
aggression in the future.
Another potentially positive outcome of the war is the strong
solidarity among the Eastern European states in opposing Russia. It is
striking that the presidents of Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine
[2]took the unusual step of appearing together with Georgian President
Mikheil Saakashvili at a rally in Tbilisi just after the ceasefire.
Ukraine's support is particularly important, since it is the largest
and most powerful of Russia's western neighbors. The Eastern European
states are too small to oppose the Russians individually. But, with
Western support, they can put up a stronger front by sticking
together.
None of the above justifies Saakashvili's foolish gamble in providing
a pretext for Russian intervention by trying to retake South Ossetia
last week. Nor does it somehow make up the tragic loss of life and
destruction of property that has occurred. Nonetheless, if this
ceasefire holds and its terms are even roughly obeyed by both sides,
we will end up with a better result than might have been expected a
few days ago.
References
1. http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/12/georgia.russia.war/index.html
2.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/12/georgia.rally/?iref=hpmostpop
_______________________________________________
Volokh mailing list
[email protected]
http://lists.powerblogs.com/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/volokh
