Posted by David Kopel: How the Second Amendment Fared Tonight: http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2008_11_02-2008_11_08.shtml#1225871855
U.S. House so far: -11. Losses in Colorado 4 (Markey over Musgrave), Florida 8 (Grayson over Keller), Florida 24 (Kosmas over Feeney), Michigan 9 (Peters over Knollenberg), NJ 3 (Adler over Myers), NY 13 (McMahon over Straniere), NY 25 (Maffie over Sweetland), Nev. 3 (Titus v. Porter), Penn. 3 (Dahlkemper over English), and Vir. 11 (Connolly over Fimian). For all races, the Democrat is listed first. The remaining undecided races with Second Amendment implications are: Alaska (Berkowitz v. Young), Calif. 4 (Brown v. McClintock), Idaho 1 (Minnick v. Sali), Michigan 7 (Schauer v. Wallberg), Ohio 1 (Driehaus v. Chabot), Ohio 15 (Kilroy v. Stievers), and Washington 8 (Burner v. Reichert). Just to guess, let's say that Democrats win 4/7 of these races. The final result is -15 for the Second Amendment. Not good, but much better than the worst-case scenario of -26 I [1]noted last week. The new House of Representatives will have a pro-gun majority on a normal vote. The Pelosi-Hoyer leadership will certainly not be pro-Second Amendment; but that leadership has recognized that its majority is precarious without pro-gun Democrats. However, a generally sympathetic majority does not guarantee victory for the pro-rights side if the President invests major political capital, as President Clinton did in 1994 to pass the ban on so-called "assault weapons" by a single vote. U.S. Senate so far. In Virginia, a +1 as Democrat Mark Warner wins the seat vacated by the retirement of Republican Jim Warner. Elsewhere, -4 from Democratic wins in Colorado (Udall), NC (Hagen), NH (Shaheen), and NM (Udall). Still undecided Senate races: Gun-owners win either way in Alaska, where Stevens might be the Comeback Kid. He leads with 66% of the vote reported. I think that Stevens is emblematic of the culture of institutionalized corruption which I admire Sarah Palin for fighting. But I also think that the prosecutorial tactics (including the illegal concealment of evidence) were so abusive in U.S. v. Stevens that the judge should have dimisssed the charges. The two other undecided Senate races are Oregon (Merkley v. Smith) and Minnesota (Franken v. Coleman). Both are tight as a tick. The most probable result would be one win by each party. So the final Senate result would be -4. Bottom line: More than enough votes to hold a filibuster, if the Senators with the votes have the will to hold. Especially considering that there are about eight Democrat Senators who would readily self-identy as "pro-gun" and several more who might vote that way. And considering that the Republican caucus contains no Republicans worse than a C (as graded by the NRA). Governor losses. -1. In Missouri, Democrat Nixon replaces Republican Blunt, who did not run for re-election. There is a potential gain if Republican Rossi wins the re-match of the race which Democrat Gregoire perhaps stole in 2004. President. Based on past record, certainly a -1. One important difference between our last Democratic President and our next one is the latter has shown himself to be much more self-disciplined. Accordingly, it is possible that he will not waste his political capital on a reckless culture war against gun owners, as President Clinton foolishly did. So perhaps President Obama will spend his political capital elsewhere, and be a -0.1 President on the gun issue. The approach would be in line with the positive, unifying themes that Obama presented on victory night in Iowa last January, and with his eloquent victory speech tonight. I don't know if President Obama will be so temperate. But anyone who fears for the worst can still hope for the best. References 1. http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OGQzYTM2NWQyYzU1MzUyZmM0YzAzYWNjZTg1OTkwNDY= _______________________________________________ Volokh mailing list [email protected] http://lists.powerblogs.com/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/volokh
