Posted by David Bernstein:
More on the Lack of Democratic Tsunami:
http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2008_11_02-2008_11_08.shtml#1225913551
A reader in the comments:
Consider the ratio of winners' votes to runners'-up votes in the
last 25 Presidential elections.
Obama won a clear victory with a ratio of 1.13 over McCain. (63.0 /
55.8 = 1.13)
But by any reasonable historical standard, this election was
actually fairly close.
The average over the last 25 elections has been 1.30. For the last
12 its 1.22....
Winner RunnerUp Ratio Contest 2000 0.479 0.484 0.98 Bush - Gore
1960 0.497 0.496 1.00 Kennedy - Nixon 1968 0.434 0.427 1.01 Nixon -
Humphrey 1976 0.501 0.48 1.04 Carter - Ford 2004 0.507 0.483 1.04
Bush - Kerry 1916 0.492 0.461 1.06 Wilson - Hughes 1948 0.496 0.451
1.09 Truman - Dewey 2008 0.52 0.46 1.13 Obama - McCain
1992 0.43 0.377 1.14 Clinton - Bush 1944 0.534 0.459 1.16 Roosevelt
- Dewey 1988 0.534 0.456 1.17 Bush - Dukakis 1996 0.4924 0.4071
1.20 Clinton - Dole 1940 0.547 0.448 1.22 Roosevelt - Willkie 1980
0.507 0.41 1.23 Reagan - Carter 1952 0.552 0.443 1.24 Eisenhower -
Stevenson 1956 0.574 0.42 1.36 Eisenhower - Stevenson 1928 0.582
0.408 1.42 Hoover - Smith 1932 0.574 0.397 1.44 Roosevelt - Hoover
1984 0.588 0.406 1.44 Reagan - Mondale 1912 0.418 0.274 1.52 Wilson
- Roosevelt 1964 0.611 0.385 1.58 Johnson - Goldwater 1972 0.607
0.375 1.61 Nixon - McGovern 1936 0.608 0.365 1.66 Roosevelt -
Landon 1920 0.603 0.341 1.76 Harding - Cox 1924 0.54 0.288 1.87
Coolidge - Davis
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