Posted by Eugene Volokh:
More on the Georgia Run-Off:
http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2008_11_02-2008_11_08.shtml#1226088827
From the [1]ABC News Political Radar blog:
The first round in the battle for 2012 is looking like it will be
fought out in Georgia [on Dec. 2] ....
With the Senate race in Georgia headed for a run-off, Sen. Saxby
Chambliss� campaign has been in touch with a fleet of prominent
Republicans -- including Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee,
Newt Gingrich, and Rudy Giuliani -- to have them campaign for the
senator�s reelection over the next four weeks....
One Republican operative with ties to Chambliss said that with the
Democrats controlling at least 57 seats in the new Senate, any
Republican who wants to be in the mix for 2012 will want to stop by
Georgia....
I suspect that the run-off itself might also be a preview of 2010,
because it will involve a Republican-Democrat contest without the
[2]2008 turnout surge and in particular without President-Elect
Obama's being on the ballot. If the result isn't just 53-47 (not far
off from the 50-47-3 result on Nov. 4), but 57-43, that will remind
Democrats that the 2010 election will have a very different -- and
quite likely more Republican -- electorate than the 2008 election. If
the result is 51-49, or of course if Democrat Jim Martin wins, then
this will make the Democrats feel that there's a solid pro-Democrat
tide even among the regular voters and not just the extra Nov. 4, 2008
turnout, and this may affect [3]how the Democrats will govern with an
eye on 2010.
Naturally, it's a mistake to plan too confidently for the future in
politics. A lot can and will change from 2008 to 2010, and from 2008
to 2012. Still, my sense is that politicos tend to care quite a bit
about such admittedly imperfect signals, partly because they are often
the only game in town. (Consider the attention paid to special
elections as indicators of what's likely to happen in the next regular
election.) So I think that a lot of people are going to be watching
the Georgia race very carefully, not just for its bottom-line outcome
but also for the spread as well as for the actions of the prospective
2012 candidates.
Thanks to [4]InstaPundit for the pointer to the ABC News blog item.
References
1. http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/11/battle-for-2012.html
2. http://volokh.com/posts/1225925436.shtml
3. http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2008_11_02-2008_11_08.shtml#1225904800
4. http://instapundit.com/
_______________________________________________
Volokh mailing list
[email protected]
http://lists.powerblogs.com/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/volokh
