Posted by Eugene Volokh:
Disclosure of Contributors to Ballot Measures:
http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2008_11_09-2008_11_15.shtml#1226609476


   The Ninth Circuit has upheld California laws that mandate the
   disclosure of contributions to ballot measure campaigns (see [1]here
   and [2]here). But [3]Buckley v. Valeo (1976) and [4]Brown v. Socialist
   Workers' 74 Campaign Committee (1982) held that "the First Amendment
   prohibits the government from compelling disclosures [of campaign
   contributions] by a minor political party that can show a 'reasonable
   probability' that the compelled disclosures will subject those
   identified to 'threats, harassment, or reprisals.'"

   Presumptively, the same rule should apply as to compelled disclosures
   of contributions to ballot measure committees -- but does it apply
   even when the ballot measure may well win (as opposed to a "minor
   political party," which is nearly sure to lose)?

   Relatedly, just how much of a showing of "harassment" and "reprisals"
   would opponents of same-sex-marriage have to show in order to justify
   such an exemption? I take it that the [5]theater boycott incident I
   mention below wouldn't by itself suffice, nor would it if it's coupled
   with [6]the hotel boycott we blogged about a few months ago. But,
   given Brown, how many such incidents -- or what types of incidents --
   would be required? Does there have to be evidence of violence, police
   abuse, or firings by employers? Or would evidence of public boycotts
   of the contributor's business, or the contributor's employer, qualify?

References

   1. http://caselaw.findlaw.com/data2/circs/9th/0215378P.pdf
   2. http://caselaw.findlaw.com/data2/circs/9th/0515507P.pdf
   3. 
http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/cgi-bin/getcase.pl?navby=case&court=us&vol=424&invol=1
   4. http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/scripts/getcase.pl?court=us&vol=459&invol=87
   5. http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2008_11_09-2008_11_15.shtml#1226609203
   6. http://volokh.com/posts/1220638833.shtml

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