Posted by Todd Zywicki:
Karl Rove on the Election:
http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2008_11_09-2008_11_15.shtml#1226677227
Interesting analysis of the election results [1]from Karl Rove in
yesterday's WSJ. After noting the big increase in minority turnout for
Obama he notes the big story on the Republican side--the decline in
turnout about Republican voters:
Then there were those who didn't show up. There were 4.1 million
fewer Republicans voting this year than in 2004. Some missing
Republicans had turned independent or Democratic for this election.
But most simply stayed home. Ironically for a campaign that
featured probably the last Vietnam veteran to run for president,
2.7 million fewer veterans voted. There were also 4.1 million fewer
voters who attend religious services more than once a week.
Americans aren't suddenly going to church less; something was
missing from the campaign to draw out the more religiously
observant.
In a sign Mr. Obama's victory may have been more personal than
partisan or philosophical, Democrats picked up just 10 state senate
seats (out of 1,971) and 94 state house seats (out of 5,411). By
comparison, when Ronald Reagan beat Jimmy Carter in 1980,
Republicans picked up 112 state senate seats (out of 1,981) and 190
state house seats (out of 5,501).
In the states this year, five chambers shifted from Republican to
Democrats, while four shifted from either tied or Democratic
control to Republican control. In the South, Mr. Obama had "reverse
coattails." Republicans gained legislative seats across the region.
In Tennessee both the house and senate now have GOP majorities for
the first time since the Civil War.
Republicans staying home thus squares the circle that Ilya has
noted--namely the apparent increase in turnout among young voters and
minorities while the absence of a noticeable increase in turnout
overall.
References
1. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122653996148523063.html
_______________________________________________
Volokh mailing list
[email protected]
http://lists.powerblogs.com/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/volokh
