Posted by Ilya Somin:
Does the Anti-Gay Marriage Backlash Prove that Judicial Review is Ineffective? 
http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2008_11_16-2008_11_22.shtml#1226989317


   In recent years, leading scholars such as Michael Klarman and Gerald
   Rosenberg have argued that judicial review is rarely if ever effective
   in protecting rights that aren't supported by the political branches
   of government and majority public opinion. The political backlash
   against the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court's 2003 gay marriage
   decision has seemingly added fuel to these revisionists' fire.

   As [1]Jeffrey Rosen argues in a recent New Republic debate that the
   Goodridge decision led to a massive political backlash, with some 30
   states enacting anti-gay marriage amendments to their constitutions as
   a result. The most recent setback was the passage of California
   Proposition 8, which reversed a pro-gay marriage California Supreme
   Court decision. Rosen concludes that judicial review has set back the
   cause of gay marriage more than it advanced it. In a recent updated
   edition of [2]his book The Hollow Hope: Can Courts Bring About Social
   Change?, Gerald Rosenberg - perhaps the leading academic advocate of
   the view that judicial review is largely ineffective - argues that the
   gay marriage battle provides further evidence for the validity of his
   thesis. Judicial decisions that run counter to majority opinion, he
   claims, actually undermine the rights they seek to protect by
   generating political backlashes and diverting valuable resources away
   from more promising strategies.

   In my view, the Klarman-Rosenberg thesis is greatly overstated, and
   the gay marriage battle actually proves that courts can have a
   significant impact even in some cases where their decisions run
   counter to majority public opinion. Richard Just [3]puts the point
   well in his response to Rosen:

     I think it's important to point out that the gay rights movement
     has not worked exclusively through the courts. The reason it
     sometimes appears that the gay marriage movement has focused on the
     courts is because those are the only places it has actually had
     success. Thanks to courts, we have marriage equality today in two
     states (Massachusetts and Connecticut); without courts, we would
     have marriage equality in no states. Would the gay rights movement
     really be better off with no court-imposed gay marriage--and
     therefore no gay marriage at all?

     You blame the 2003 Massachusetts decision for leading to
     gay-marriage bans in 30 states. I would put the numbers a bit
     differently. In states where courts have imposed gay marriage, we
     are now two for three in terms of making the ruling stick. (We lost
     in California. But in Massachusetts, where polls swung in favor of
     gay marriage within a year of the first same-sex marriage, we have
     effectively won. And likewise in Connecticut, where voters this
     week rejected calls by conservatives to hold a constitutional
     convention for the purpose of overturning the state supreme court's
     ruling on marriage equality.) By contrast, in states where courts
     have not imposed gay marriage, we are zero for 47. And, in many of
     these states (New York, for instance), this has not been for a lack
     of effort on the part of gay activists and the politicians allied
     with them.

   The crucial point here is that in 29 of the 30 states that passed
   anti-gay marriage amendments, there wasn't any legal gay marriage
   anyway. Thus, gay marriage advocates didn't actually lose much in
   these states. To be sure, the enactment of these amendments may make
   it more difficult to adopt gay marriage in the future. Rosen
   emphasizes this point. However, it's important to remember that most
   state constitutions are actually easy to amend. That's why the
   anti-gay marriage forces were able to pass their amendments so
   quickly. In many states, a state constitutional amendment in most is
   an only slightly greater obstacle to legal change than a statute. From
   a pro-gay rights standpoint, the adoption of gay marriage in two
   states and its near-adoption in California was likely worth the cost
   of making gay marriage slightly more difficult to enact in some 30
   states where it was unlikely to be adopted in the near future anyway.

   Moreover, both Just and Rosen undervalue the extent to which the
   pro-gay marriage court decisions have shifted the parameters of the
   political debate. With the relatively radical gay marriage option now
   on the table, other pro-gay rights measures such as civil unions seem
   moderate by comparison. Thus, [4]civil unions are now supported by the
   majority of the general public, and even by some social conservative
   politicians, including [5]George W. Bush. It is difficult to imagine
   this result coming about so quickly without the pro-gay marriage
   judicial decisions.

   None of this proves that the state supreme court decisions requiring
   gay marriage were correctly decided. It does, however, show that
   judicial power is often more potent than the Klarman-Rosenberg thesis
   suggests. To be sure, courts are unlikely to protect rights that are
   completely bereft of support elsewhere in society. If not for the
   liberalization of social attitudes towards gays over the last 50
   years, there would never have been enough pro-gay judges to reach
   decisions like Goodridge. But although the courts are not completely
   free of outside constraints, they can indeed sometimes protect rights
   that are opposed by majority opinion and by the political branches of
   government. Co-blogger David Bernstein and I tried to outline the
   conditions under which that might happen in [6]this 2004 Yale Law
   Journal article criticizing Klarman. Although we didn't focus on the
   gay marriage battle specifically, many of our points apply to it as
   well.

References

   1. 
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=fcb8bfb9-a829-4d92-84d5-a180a06c118a
   2. 
http://www.amazon.com/Hollow-Hope-American-Politics-Political/dp/0226727033
   3. 
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=485a245e-84b3-4534-99e3-2bcfe63952d7
   4. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4496265/
   5. http://www.accessmylibrary.com/coms2/summary_0286-14864158_ITM
   6. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=620781

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