Posted by Ilya Somin:
The Politics of the Economic Crisis in Russia:
http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2009_02_08-2009_02_14.shtml#1234474059
The financial crisis and especially the recent decline in oil prices
have hit the Russian economy hard, and have shaken previously strong
popular support for Vladimir Putin's regime. In late January, there
were [1]widespread anti-government demonstrations organized by a
variety of opposition groups. Russia's growth during the 8 years of
Putin's rule has been overwhelmingly based on revenues from oil
exports, which boomed as oil prices rose. Now, however, the game seems
to be up. Although oil prices might increase in, they are unlikely to
regain their pre-recession levels anytime soon.
Putin's popularity has suffered enough that even Russian President
Dmitry Medvedev - whom Putin handpicked for the post - is [2]beginning
to distance himself from his longtime patron - criticizing Putin's
economic policies and tabling a Putin-sponsored law that would have
criminalized most political dissent as "treason."
Until now, both Russian and foreign opinion has mostly seen Medvedev
as a lackey that Putin installed in the presidency last year so as to
circumvent term limits. If this particular rat is considering jumping
ship, that means the vessel in question might really be in danger of
sinking.
Anders Aslund, a leading expert on the Russian economy, [3]says that
the nation has arrived at a crossroads:
Russia is at a crossroads. There are basically two choices. Either
it becomes more authoritarian, with state capitalism and
protectionism -- [and] then it has no need for cooperation with the
European Union. Or we see a political and economic liberalization,
which is the opposite direction.
I suspect that Aslund is right. It's possible that the regime will now
be forced to liberalize, and Medvedev has been making a few gestures
in that direction. Liberal democratic opposition leaders, such as
Garry Kasparov, might be able to turn the crisis to their advantage.
However, it's also possible that the economic crisis will ultimately
play into the hands of Russia's communists and ultranationalists. The
latter have also been out in force lately, blaming Russia's economic
woes on the West (as [4]Putin has also done) and[5] on the Jews.
Unfortunately, anti-Western and anti-Semitic sentiment has been
bolstered in recent years by the Putin regime's nationalistic
propaganda, which even went so far as to[6] sponsor a TV "documentary"
claiming that the US government itself organized the 9/11 attacks so
as to manufacture an excuse to assert dominance over the world. The
influence of Putin's propaganda might outlast Putin himself.
As bad as the authoritarian Putin regime is, there are [7]nationalist
and communist forces in Russia that are even worse. It remains to be
seen whether they or their liberal rivals become the main political
beneficiaries of Russia's economic crisis.
References
1. http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/01/31/2479210.htm
2.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/08/AR2009020802129.html?wprss=rss_business
3.
http://www.rferl.org/content/Russias_Woes_Neighborhood_Weaknesses_To_Complicate_EU_Policy/1492165.html
4.
http://business.theage.com.au/business/world-business/putin-blames-west-for-global-crisis-20090129-7s74.html
5. http://www.adl.org/main_Anti_Semitism_International/Financial_Crisis
6. http://volokh.com/posts/1222813648.shtml
7. http://www.david-kilgour.com/2008/Sep_12_2008_07.php
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