Posted by David Bernstein:
Interesting (and likely correct) Perspective on the Election in Israel:
http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2009_02_15-2009_02_21.shtml#1234837735
[1]Ha'artez:
Shockingly, the Israeli public may have voted for the right not
because it rejects the idea of peace deals, partition, and a
two-state solution, but because it believes the right is better
qualified to find a way to carry out that undeniably painful
process. "The outcome of the elections indicates that Israelis view
the 'peace process' with the Palestinians as a divorce process,"
writes economic analyst Elah Alkalai.
"As their unwilling embrace was arranged by global forces, so
apparently will be their separation. Think of it as severance of an
arranged marriage, and the vote Israelis cast last week was for
what they perceive as the roughest, toughest divorce lawyer in
town."
Avigdor Lieberman, the hands-down success story of the election,
has repeatedly outraged the far-right by suggesting in the past
that some heavily Arab-populated East Jerusalem neighborhoods and
refugee camps be ceded to an eventual independent Palestinian state
in the West Bank and Gaza [editor: not to mention his willingness
to concede to the Palestinians Arab towns within the 1967 borders.]
He has consistently alientated the ultra-Orthodox - an essential
building block of any right-wing dream coalition - by demanding
civil-marriage and modified Jewish conversion legislation favored
by Lieberman's ultra-secular constituency.
Netanyahu's Likud, the anchor of a potential rightist coalition,
has been on record for years as favoring an eventual Palestinian
state in the territories, as long as strict security guarantees
were met. The Likud is also the only party ever to have headed a
government which dismantled established settlements. Only two
parties, representing just seven seats in the 120-seat Knesset,
still argue for a Greater Israel. Not even the fringe-right
National Union with its frankly pro-Kahane wing, dares come out in
public for a return to permanent Israeli occupation of the Gaza
Strip, stating in its platform only that "There will be no
uprooting of Jewish communities and no surrender of parts of the
Land of Israel in any subsequent Israeli government led by the
party."
"In other words," Alkalai concludes, "the majority vote was cast
for a leadership - the right wing - that the public thinks can end
the relationship with the most assets for Israelis and preferably
no alimony at all for the spouse."
The Israeli Left has lost the confidence of Israelis by persuading
them to put their faith in a "peace process" premised on the
assumption that the dispute with the Palestinians was primarily about
land, and that if Israel was willing to withdraw from land
appropriated in 1967, peace would ensue. That turned out to be overly
simplistic, and perhaps very naive. I recall reading several left-wing
Ha'aretz columnists who claimed during the Second Intifada that the
underlying problem was that the Palestinians didn't believe Israel
would ever withdraw from any of the "occupied territories." Israel
subsequently did withdraw, from Gaza and part of Samaria, but this led
to the election of Hamas in Gaza, not to the triumph of Palestinian
doves. The left still clings to its paradigm, however. The Israeli
right, meanwhile, has quickly shifted to what it is at least able to
portray as a "realist" approach to the Palestinians. As is usual in
politics, the side that has been better able to react to events on the
ground, rather than sticking to ideological presuppositions, has won.
[Disclosure: I don't know who I'd support if I were an Israeli. I'd
want someone with the free market sympathies and communication skills
of Netanyahu; the secularism and willingness to confront the fact that
an ever-increasing percentage of Israelis, primarily Arab and
ultra-Orthodox, have no loyalty to the state as currently constituted,
of Lieberman; the military experience of Barak; and the moderation of
Livni, without their myriad disadvantages, including the demonstrated
diplomatic incompetence of Netanyahu and Barak, the demagoguery and
penchant for outrageous statements of Lieberman, and the
black-boxedness of Livni.]
References
1. http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1064569.html
_______________________________________________
Volokh mailing list
[email protected]
http://lists.powerblogs.com/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/volokh
