Posted by David Post:
Tinkerbell Returns!
http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2009_03_08-2009_03_14.shtml#1236788597
A good while ago here on the VC (in 2003, to be precise) I
[1]introduced (and subsequently [2]named) the "Tinkerbell Effect" (and
its close cousin, the "Reverse Tinkerbell Effect"). A Tinkerbell
occurs when some phenomenon is more likely to become true simply as a
consequence of more people believing it to be true; a Reverse
Tinkerbell occurs when some phenomenon is more likely to become false
simply as a consequence of more people believing it to be true. [And a
shout-out to VC reader Patick Hynes, who helped me, back then, find
the name for the phenomenon -- derived, of course, from the moment in
Peter Pan when little Tink's light starts to dim, and Peter explains
to the audience that Tink is ill, and might just die, because nobody
believes in fairies anymore, at which point he exhorts the audience to
believe in fairies, and to clap and to cry out "I believe!" -- after
which Tinkerbell recovers and everyone feels wonderful. [It always
worked, too!] The Reverse Tinkerbell, then, occurs when the more you
believe in something, the more likely it is to vanish.]
[Some examples of Reverse Tinkerbells: Voting: The more that people
believe the truth of the proposition "My vote matters," the less
likely it is that it will become true (because more people will
vote if they believe it matters, and that makes it less likely that
your vote matters); similarly, the more that people believe the
proposition "My vote doesn't matter," the less likely it is to
become true (i.e., fewer people will vote, and then your vote will
matter). Or: The more that people believe the proposition " X [the
college library; Cancun; etc.] is a quiet and unspoiled spot," the
less true it becomes. Or: The more people think that some charity
(e.g., the March of Dimes, or the Salvation Army) really needs
money, the less money it will need.]
Tinkerbells and Reverse Tinkerbells are everywhere, once you start
looking for them. Here's one that's been on my mind recently. Anyone
who spends 15 minutes or more thinking seriously about how to market a
book in this country to a wide audience (as I have been doing of late)
realizes that the proposition "Book X is a New York Times Bestseller"
is a classic Tinkerbell -- the more people believe the proposition,
the more likely it is to become true. That is, of course, why
publishers will splash the fact (if it's true) all over their
advertisements, and all over the covers of their books (when the new
editions come out), and all over their marketing material, etc. [The
actual links connecting the belief in the proposition and the outcome
are quite interesting and could use some careful study, I think --
once a book is a NY Times Bestseller, many things happen: NPR is more
likely to carry a story about it; Terri Gross is more likely to
interview the author; bookstores all over the country are more likely
to feature it on their display shelves; ordinary consumers are more
likely to shell out their hard-earned money (hey - it's a NY Times
Bestseller, how bad can it be?...)]
That's all pretty commonplace - like I said, everyone who thinks about
selling books understands this. Like every other author out there, I'd
love to figure out a way to ride this Tinkerbell to greater and
greater heights, to get those positive feedback belief loops humming.
How to do that? Well, I could just put "In Search of Jefferson's
Moose: a New York Times Bestseller!!" all over the [3]webpage for my
book, the [4]Amazon page for my book, the Google AdWords campaign for
my book, etc. and watch my sales go up.
Unfortunately, there's a name for that: "fraud."
But here's the interesting wrinkle. On the Net, these loops can
aggregate and amplify these signals with astonishing speed [see, e.g.,
"marketing, viral"], and it might be possible to game this system
while avoiding serious exposure for fraud. Here's the idea: assume
(even if you don't happen to believe that it's true in this instance)
that this particular Tinkerbell really can induce increased sales of
Book X. For a fairly modest outlay of money -- I'd guess $20 or $30K
could do it -- one could design a blitz Internet ad campaign,
saturating Google's AdWords, Amazon and bn.com and maybe some of the
other online retail sites, and some of the big blogs, getting that
message in front of hundreds of thousands or millions of eyeballs. The
ad campaign focuses on the message: "Book X: A New York Times
Bestseller!!" The question is: can you get enough velocity to actually
make that become true soon enough so that nobody feels "defrauded" or
cheated by the transaction? That is, if you were reasonably confident
that you could actually generate enough sales on Monday, Tuesday, and
Wednesday to make the book an actual NYT bestseller list on the
following Sunday's list, who will claim to have been defrauded?
Indeed, will there have actually been fraud, in that circumstance?
It probably wouldn't actually work in this instance -- this particular
market's not quite friction-less enough to induce it to happen quickly
enough; it takes time for realspace booksellers to reorganize their
shelves, and time for Terri Gross and Jon Stewart to put together
their lineups, etc. etc. My guess, though, is that someone, surely, is
going to try. [Not me, by the way -- it sounds too much like Bernard
Madoff for my tastes. Rest assured: if you see an ad for my book
trumpeting that it's a NY Times Bestseller, the claim is factually
true. [And those of you who are more devious than I have already
noticed that my getting you to believe that could just be the linchpin
of my Tinkerbell strategy . . .]].
And here's a final nice touch -- the belief in the efficacy of this
kind of scheme to game the NY Times Bestseller System is itself a
Reverse Tinkerbell! The more people believe the truth of the
proposition "The NYT Bestseller System can be gamed," the less likely
it is to become true (because if people believe that system can be
gamed, the "New York Times Bestseller!!" label no longer induces
people to buy the book . . .)
References
1. http://volokh.com/2003_01_19_volokh_archive.html#90230055
2. http://volokh.com/2003_01_26_volokh_archive.html#90251142
3. http://jeffersonsmoose.org/
4.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0195342895?ie=UTF8&tag=inseaofjefsmo-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0195342895
_______________________________________________
Volokh mailing list
[email protected]
http://lists.powerblogs.com/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/volokh
