Posted by Ilya Somin:
Gary Kasparov on President Medvedev and the Future of Russia:
http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2009_05_10-2009_05_16.shtml#1242248306
In recent months, there have been [1]a few indications that Russian
President Dmitri Medvedev might break with Prime Minister Vladimir
Putin - the authoritarian leader who handpicked him for his current
position - and liberalize the country's economic and political system.
In [2]today's Wall Street Journal, however, Russian opposition leader
Gary Kasparov, the former world chess champion, writes that a
Putin-Medvedev breakup may be less likely than many Westerners hope:
It has become fashionable to speak of change and liberalization in
Russia under President Dmitry Medvedev. May 7 marked his one-year
anniversary in office. He has recently granted an interview with an
opposition newspaper, allowed a few human-rights activists to
criticize Russia's regime, and even started a blog. There is also a
new administration in Washington that wants a fresh start with
foreign powers.
However, Mr. Medvedev's gestures have not been matched by policy.
It is more appropriate to think of Russia as living under Vladimir
Putin's ninth year in power. Mr. Putin is now prime minister but
still in charge. His agenda of oppression and plunder is still the
course in Russia. The Kremlin's willingness to install its
candidates in office [without free election] and persecute its
opponents remains undiminished.
If Medvedev does make a decisive break with Putin, Kasparov believes
it will likely be because of political pressures created by the global
recession rather than because Medvedev genuinely wants liberalization:
There are optimistic rumors in the West of a potential rift between
Messrs. Medvedev and Putin. With the steep drop in energy prices,
the Russian economy in free fall, and the need to find a scapegoat,
a clash is likely. But it will not be because the two men differ
significantly in matters of morality and power. We have seen enough
to recognize that they are both enemies of democracy, open
competition, and free expression.
That seems roughly accurate to me.
References
1. http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2009_02_08-2009_02_14.shtml#1234474059
2. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124217260273613005.html
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