Posted by David Kopel: Left/Right agreement: Repubs unlikely to retake House in 2010: http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2009_08_30-2009_09_05.shtml#1252080507
The National Journal poll of political bloggers returns from August vacation. This week's first question was "On a scale of 1 (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the House in the 2010 elections?" The Left bloggers gave it an average of 2.5, and the Right said 4.4. I gave it a 3, and wrote: "Fortunately for the Blue Dogs, the backlash against Obamacare has come early enough in the legislative cycle that they can spend late 2009 and 2010 making sure to vote their districts and letting their districts know that they are not Obama's men in Congress. Besides that, most of the Democrats in tough seats have been voting pro-gun; in 1994, not one incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. who was endorsed by the NRA was defeated." (For more on 1994, see this Independence Institute monograph, "[1]Does the National Rifle Association Influence Federal Elections?" which studied the 1994 and 1996 U.S. House races. Question two asked about Republican Senate gains in 2010. The Left expected them to lose 0.5 seats, while the Right expected a pick-up of 4.4. I voted for +4, based on general off-year trends (even though the Republicans have a tough map in 2010), but like several bloggers on the Left and the Right, thought that it's very hard to tell at this time. References 1. http://www.i2i.org/articles/8-2006.pdf _______________________________________________ Volokh mailing list [email protected] http://lists.powerblogs.com/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/volokh
