This book has been causing a buzz in the press lately:
The Long Emergency: Surviving the Converging Catastrophes of the
Twenty-First Century. James Howard Kunstler. x + 307 pp. Atlantic Monthly
Press, 2005. $23.
I have not read the book, but I have read several reviews, such as this one:
http://www.americanscientist.org/template/BookReviewTypeDetail/assetid/45924;jsessionid=aaaaXjAFg_nw8t
This book is a mirror image of my book. Kunstler and I look at the same
data and draw 180 degree opposite conclusions. I believe that even without
cold fusion there are dozens of ways to solve the energy crisis, and that
the worst that can happen is that we will be spending $8 per gallon for
gasoline for a couple of decades before some effective large-scale
alternative wins the economic competition becomes widespread. Alternatives
include such things as: solar hydrogen, fission electricity plus hydrogen,
space elevator + space based solar, and so on.
Kunstler appears to have no idea that energy can be converted from one form
to another. For example, massive solar-electric plants or nuclear power
plants could produce liquid fuels. He seems to assume that once we run out
of oil they will be no other liquid fuel for automobiles, and apparently he
is never heard of a plug-in hybrid. It appears he has no faith in
free-market competition or ingenuity. Of course I am well aware of the fact
that fossil fuels are a limited, expensive and rapidly dwindling resource;
that the free market has failed drastically in the past (such as in 1929);
and that the energy crisis is a very serious and expensive problem. But I
would never give in to despair the way this author apparently has.
The review cited above says that the author briefly discusses zero point
energy. "Nor is he sanguine about such far-out schemes as a process for
deriving zero-point energy from the dark matter of the universe; he reminds
us that 'A useful maxim in engineering states that when something sounds
too good to be true, it generally is not true.'"
I would say that is not a very useful maxim with regard to scientific
research. Over the past 400 years it has produced millions of goods and
services which would have seemed far too good to be true to our ancestors.
I used the Amazon.com search this book feature to find the following quote
about cold fusion in the book:
"... and France. Ever since the development of the hydrogen bomb, hopes
have been harbored for the development of a commercial fusion process that
could be used in electric power generation. In ... miracles promised for
the post-petroleum future. A related process called "cold fusion" has been
pursued in laboratories sedulously for decades, as methods for turning lead
into gold were doggedly pursued by ..."
This kind of book has been published many times in the past. The only bad
thing about it is that it might discourage the public, and make people
think there is no point to searching for, or investing in, new technology
and basic research.
- Jed
