Jed sez: > Steven Vincent Johnson wrote: > > >It would appear that North Korea has demonstrated to the world > that it can detonate a nuclear bomb. > > I still doubt it. > > Anyway, Kim will not live forever, and nations like North Korea > seldom last for long, so I do not think it matters much. The lesson > of the cold war is that it is often best to do nothing provocative, > stand your ground, and wait for things to improve. People tend to > exaggerate the gravity of these "crises," as they are called before > everyone forgets they happened. The U.S. did not go to war over the > Quemoy and Matsu "crisis" in 1954, and yet we survived. The U.S. did > go to war over the Tonkin Gulf attack and the Iraqi WMD crisis, but > both events turned out to be fabricated, and responding to them on > this scale was a mistake, to put it mildly. > > - Jed
While no one lives forever they tend to possess the irritating characteristic of living long enough to create consequences that the "survived by" will have to deal with. Jed, I pretty much agree in principal with your assessment of the situation. I would also add that the last thing Kim wants is to be ignored. The more we engage with Kim's regime (in the 1st person) the more legitimate he is likely to feel his regime is being perceived by the rest of the world. OTOH, if Kim manages to successfully sell nuclear material to rogue organizations we will have a lot to "deal" with. It's my understanding that the science of being able to identify where nuclear material had been manufactured is a precise process. There would be no doubt as to who was responsible for the source. It is pretty much understood by all parties involved that if any clearly identifiable N. Korean nuclear material were to be used in some nefarious way by a 3rd party it would spell the end of Kim's regime - big time. People scratch their heads wondering why Kim might even consider selling nuclear material to rogue organizations if it is clearly understood that the source would quickly be traced back to his country - with disaterous consequences to his regime's health. But then, who really knows what Kim is thinking. FWIW: The most interesting speculation I've heard (and it IS pure speculation I might add since I have no hard evidence to back it up) is that Kim's political decisions indicate there may be a streak of martyrdom in his psychological makeup. If so, all the more reason to tread carefully. A cornered, wild, starving animal is not likely to feel that it has many viable options left. Regards, Steven Vincent Johnson www.Orionworks.com www.Zazzle.com/orionworks
