If prediction of earthquakes were a solid accurate science then perhaps they should be punished, but that is clearly not the situation. No one has been able to reliably make such a prediction with anything that resembles regularity so these poor guys should not be held in too much disregard. I think that it would be prudent to ask ones self how many times has a series of small quakes occurred when a major event did not follow up? Throwing the dice would likely be as accurate as quake science is currently in this field.
Anyone is capable of predicting that a major earthquake is going to occur in California soon. The pattern has been established if you look at the behavior of the "ring of fire". Should everyone evacuate the area because of the danger? Who should we incarcerate when it happens? Dave -----Original Message----- From: Michele Comitini <[email protected]> To: vortex-l <[email protected]> Sent: Mon, Oct 29, 2012 4:56 pm Subject: Re: [Vo]:Mischaracterizations of verdict against seismologists. Journalist around the world are comparing those lazy professors to real scientists persecuted in the past. Galileo is the most named. I just remind that Galileo used his intelligence to make *correct* predictions that went against the established "Truth" , that eventually led him to be sentenced for life. The ones we are talking about here *denied* that there was an increased chance of a strong earthquake even if earth tremors in the area were intensifying their frequency. It seems they did a very poor job in investigating further and also pointing the inadequate level of safety of building especially public ones. It is probable that there have been pressures to play down actual risk by the government of that time. The full document that explains the sentence has not been released to the public, but it looks that this particular vicissitude is the exact opposite of the one of Galileo. mic 2012/10/29 Harry Veeder <[email protected]> Did you read it? In the process of asserting themselves as the legitimate authorities on local seismological conditions, the seismologists appeared to *minimize* the risk of a major earthquake. One seismologist in an attempt to quell public alarm said the recent cluster of tremors *reduced* the risk of a major earthquake which he knew was unfounded claim. I suspect the government seimsologist were either misinformed about their duties or those duties were not clearly formulated by the government . Unfortunately these scientists are the guinea-pigs for better policy so the sentence should be light. Perhaps the italian equivalent of the minister of the environment should take some of the blame and resign. Harry On Mon, Oct 29, 2012 at 11:08 AM, Jed Rothwell <[email protected]> wrote: > This whole story is an outrage. It is simply dreadful. Are they trying to > outlaw science and academic freedom, or are they trying to outlaw mistakes? > > - Jed >
