James Bowery <[email protected]> wrote: What I'm asking for is something similar to what I asked of proponents of > alternative fusion technologies when writing up the fusion prize > legislation back in > 1992<http://www.oocities.org/jim_bowery/BussardsLetter.html> > : > > "If you were considering competing for a cold fusion prize to be awarded > for a reliably reproducible experimental protocol, how would you like to > see that prize's criteria stated?" >
Well, it does not seem complicated. I guess I would say it has to be replicated by at least two other labs; it has to work in one out of ten runs; and it has produce a high signal to noise ratio. Exactly how high should be defined by someone who understands statistics better than I do. It would be nice if they could have intermediate prizes for incremental progress. One of out ten may not seem like much, but it is enough to make the experiment reasonably easy to replicate. In fundamental research, there is never any call for high reproducibility, only replicability -- which is a different thing. IPS cell reproducibility is something like 1%. I think Obokata has improved it a great deal with her new technique, but it is still low. Improved reproducibility has no bearing on the scientific validity of the claim, but it does make the research easier, and it is needed for eventual commercialization. > The Longitude Prize <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longitude_prize> was > about as vague as you can afford to be and still get results -- and its > vagueness almost killed Harrison before he got the prize. > He didn't actually get it. He got half, as a way to support his research, but his political opponents prevented him from getting the other half. The rest of the prize was never awarded to anyone. George III took pity on Harrison and got him the money by other means. It was pretty clearly stated, but every time someone got close to winning the opponents changed the rules. First you had to navigate from England to St. George accurate to within a certain number of nautical miles. Then they made it a round trip. Then they made it around the world. The opponents were working on the lunar method, and they were determined to prevent Harrison and the other watchmakers from winning. The lunar method was a big government project. It was the biggest, most expensive scientific project of the 18th and 19th centuries. It continued until 1911, as I recall. - Jed
