Cold Fusion exists for PdD. What is not proven is NiH fusion.
2014-05-18 3:46 GMT-03:00 Kevin O'Malley <[email protected]>: > [image: Boxbe] <https://www.boxbe.com/overview> This message is eligible > for Automatic Cleanup! ([email protected]) Add cleanup > rule<https://www.boxbe.com/popup?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.boxbe.com%2Fcleanup%3Ftoken%3DqOCcFOWfRIDXns%252Fk0er%252FZjy7ZKsFOYoyirVmjCPiyY6u6lGGxMLRodfUAiXtsAKPvZkWU8F%252BzRA2VIIWjvIaux7PReKXMS%252BSz%252BmkCH6FexCH0EOvbVBsOkMb0OdRfrW23NYBqdo5NK4%253D%26key%3DKUyC%252FtlJtMKM9TZR2KeGHklch5tvOPJ3X8iVx5J6yQY%253D&tc_serial=17288660888&tc_rand=1386676834&utm_source=stf&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ANNO_CLEANUP_ADD&utm_content=001>| > More > info<http://blog.boxbe.com/general/boxbe-automatic-cleanup?tc_serial=17288660888&tc_rand=1386676834&utm_source=stf&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ANNO_CLEANUP_ADD&utm_content=001> > > Here's an old discussion I had on an intrade board about the "probability > of Rossi being real" > > > > http://intrade.freeforums.org/i-miss-intrade-t29.html > > Re: I miss > Intrade<http://intrade.freeforums.org/i-miss-intrade-t29.html#p138> > > [image: Post] <http://intrade.freeforums.org/post138.html#p138>by *intrader > <http://intrade.freeforums.org/memberlist.php?mode=viewprofile&u=70>* ยป > Mon May 27, 2013 2:12 am > Third time is the charm: > > P(A|B) = P(B|A) * P(A) / P(B) > or > P(B) = P(B|A) * P(A) / P(A|B) > > A = E-Cat & Rossi is real > B = Cold fusion (or something close to it) is discovered > > If E-Cat is real, it looks like cold fusion to me (or something close to > it). P(B|A) = 0.5 > I think we all can go with the prior probability that E-Cat & Rossi was > probably not real (history of fraud / was convicted / etc) P(A) = 0.01 > > Now, what is the probability that if cold fusion exists that it's going to > be Rossi that makes a real e-cat? > > Interestingly, the more we disparage Rossi (relative to his colleagues) > here, the more likely cold fusion exists. > > Unfortunately, I think only people like Rossi are actually looking at cold > fusion. So if it does exists, I think it's reasonable to say it'll be Rossi > or perhaps someone like Rossi that might discover it. So, P(A|B) = 0.05 (I > think it's fair to say at least 20 other people are looking at it). > > However, if it looks like more people of Rossi's caliber or better are > looking at Cold Fusion, then that bodes well for CF. So, go ahead and punch > in your own number there. > > Counter intuitive, kinda, but that's bayes for you. > > > So, P(B) = (0.5 * 0.01) / 0.05 = 25% cold fusion exists. > > > -- Daniel Rocha - RJ [email protected]
