[email protected] <[email protected]> wrote: Yes, but you are talking about the endgame. If we started making LENR > gensets today, we'll still pump oil for decades. >
One or two decades, but at the end of that time the industry will be in catastrophic decline. To get a sense of how it is likely to work out, look at U.S. railroad passenger traffic after the introduction of the Model T Ford in 1908. By 1932 the railroads and especially their pension system had to be rescued by Congress, and that was not just from the effects of the Depression. Or, look at the decline of North Atlantic ocean liner transportation after 1945, after the introduction of airplane service. By 1955 ocean liner service was dead. The actual final demise of an industry may come decades after a catastrophic decline. The last U.S. telegram was sent in 2006. However, telegrams ceased to play any role in the economy by 1960. They were doomed after the introduction of direct dial long distance telephone service in 1951, which was reasonably cheap compared to previous long distance service. In other words, there may be some oil pumped out of the ground 100 years from now, but the amounts will trivial compared to today. It will only be used because for some odd reason such as a large plastic production factory happens to be located on top of an oil field. You sometimes find old factories and a long obsolete machine still in use. Here is a well-known example. A company in Texas uses a 1948 punch card machine: http://www.pcworld.com/article/249951/if_it_aint_broke_dont_fix_it_ancient_computers_in_use_today.html - Jed
