Re: Will future war be fought over energy?

[Mike Carrell]

----- Original Message ----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] ; [EMAIL PROTECTED] ; vortex-l@eskimo.com Sent: Wednesday, January 26, 2005 8:18 AM Subject: Re: Will future war be fought over energy? In a message dated 1/24/05 11:50:07 AM Pacific Standard Time, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: ."         China believes the U.S. military will disrupt China's energy imports in any conflict over Taiwan, and sees the United States as an unpredictable country that violates others' sovereignty and wants to "encircle" China, the report said.         Beijing's leaders see access to oil and gas resources as vital to economic growth and fear that stalled economic growth could cause instability and ultimately the collapse of their nation of 1.3 billion people. MC: One can encircle an island, but China is not an island. Russia also saw itself as "encircled" by antagonistic capitalist nations. China has little oil, is dependant on Russia or other countries, as is the US. Certainly China needs energy for economic growth and is building large hyrdoelectric projects. China has a host of internal problems as well, as outlined in Jared Diamond's recent book "Collapse". The US is investing in China, which may become a great power in this century, as it was in the past. Whoever controls the oil can also use it against the USA.  So if Bush and other Middle Eastern oil barons should decide to ally with China, the Middle East, or any other power the USA could be helpless unless the USA becomes more energy self sufficient at home also.    Another advantage that the USA citizen's have over China and other Third World nations presently, is that the USA can very quickly upgrade its society to a solar, wind and corn fueled ethanol society much faster than China since the average USA citizen is still wealthy enough to buy and upgrade to solar, wind and ethanol, so that the USA is not dependent on oil as much as China and other Third World nations will be.  The Average Chinese and Third World citizen does not have the funds to pay for solar or room to grown corn for ethanol.  The key in the USA will be to get enough USA citizens to upgrade to solar, wind and ethanol quickly enough while they still have a chance.   MC: Developing countries will first use the established, low technology engines and accept the resultant pollution. The idea that the US can quickly solve its energy problem by converstion to wind, solar and biomass is an illusion, given our dependency on private automobiles. Ethonol ultimately depends on petroleum based fertilizers to get the needed productivity. The solar cells have just recently improved by 30 percent efficiency and are more durable to last longer and can collect infrared sunlight at night to make them 60 percent more efficient than present solar cells to make them cost effective and competitive with oil and other energies.  It is very likely that solar cells will improve their efficiency and durability every 10 years.  The James Bond movie, The man with the golden gun, showed that a solar cell with 95 percent efficiency had been invented by 1973, but is kept classified, so that we can be assured that solar cell efficiency will improve, to make solar cells a good energy investment.   MC: The infrared sensitive solar cells are a useful development. They have a claimed 30% efficiency -- not an improvement of 30% and are cheap, compared silicon-based cells which can reach 25% at high cost. There is no "infrared sunlight" at night. There are many factors in a PV system that enter into feasibility. The James Bond device is fiction, and if you believe that "it is kept classified", then the crediblity of your analysis is nonexsitent. Mike Carrell