Anyway, $2 or $3 per gallon gasoline will strike many people as a crisis. Frankly, it is our best hope for progress in CF, and touches I deplore the suffering it will cause among poor people, I am glad to see these high prices. My only fear is that the high prices will *not* trigger a panic, and the public will gradually get used to the idea instead.
- Jed
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Jed,
Even if cold fusion comes online today, we are still left with the problem of retroftting a $45 trillion
dollar (and growing) global infrastructure to run on CF - and to do so inside of 2-5 years.
Ultimately, it would give us access to an energy source even denser than oil. Do you really want humanity to
have access to something like that? Consider the consequences to the species if that was to happen.
Oil was a lottery ticket. When you exhaust the winnings from a lottery ticket, the solution is not to
go look for an even bigger jackpot.
Best,
Matt
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MY RESPONSE:
You wrote:
Even if f cold fusion comes online today, we are still
left with the problem of retroftting a $45 trillion
dollar (and growing) global infrastructure to run on CF
- and to do so inside of 2-5 years.
That could not be done! It would take at least 10 years, in a Manhattan Project style crash program. However, it would not take 30 to 40 years, because the engineering performance of cold fusion is similar to combustion, and because cold fusion devices are remarkably simple. A few of them have already demonstrated power levels and power density high enough to be practical.
While I agree with you there is a crisis, I think that we have somewhat more than 5 years. Conventional technologies such as hybrid engines and variable toll roads can greatly reduce our present use of oil, and stretch out supplies. I have considerably experience dealing with Japan because I work as a translator from Japanese into English. Japan and Italy are the two most energy-efficient countries, and we could improve our efficiency simply by purchasing technology from them. I am well aware of differences in transportation systems, average commuting distance, and so on, but that still leaves much room for improvement.
Ultimately, it would give us access to an energy source
even denser than oil. Do you really want humanity to
have access to something like that?
Yes, I do, even though I agree it might be a problem. Regarding this issue, I wrote:
". . . [W]e can easily destroy the earth with the technology we already have. We do not need cold fusion, nuclear bombs or any advanced technology. We are using fire, man’s oldest tool, to destroy the rain forests. The ancient Chinese, Greeks and Romans deforested large areas and turned millions of hectares of productive cropland into desert. The destructive side effects of technology in 2000 BC were as bad as they are today.
Cold fusion surely will enhance people’s ability to commit everything from public nuisances to continental-scale mayhem. Gigantic cold fusion powered boom boxes and laser light shows may blast popular music and bright lights into neighborhoods, beaches and pristine National Parks. People may be tempted to drive SUVs the size of Mack Trucks, since they will not have to pay for gasoline. . . ."
That is in Chapter 19 of a free e-book I wrote, "Cold Fusion and the Future," 186 pages, available here:
http://lenr-canr.org/acrobat/RothwellJcoldfusiona.pdf
It was recommended by Arthur C. Clarke and by some of the world's leading electrochemists, and a poet friend of mine called it "lyrical." Cold fusion has eclectic appeal. . . .
You might enjoy the photos of Japan's most notorious pollution at the petrochemical refinery in Yokkaichi, on page 125. Perhaps "enjoy" is the wrong word -- you might be interested in seeing these pictures, and the ones on the next page showing schoolchildren gargling to avoid the effects of the air pollution.
Consider the consequences to the species if that was to happen.
I have thought long and hard about that very subject! That is not to say I am right but I have considered it in depth over the last 16 years. Also I am greatly concerned about other species, and invasive species. I wrote a chapter about that.
- Jed
