If enough people begin smoking again the Social Security fund will not run short in 2040 or anytime this century, because people will die off more quickly.
There is a great deal of confusion about demography and health, so let me add that cigarettes are ideal for knocking off old people soon after they begin collecting Social Security, in their 70s. Most U.S. health problems affect younger people, especially infants. Violence and AIDS kill teenagers and people in their 20s. So they do nothing to reduce social security outlays. Diabetes and obesity are likely to kill or disable people in their 50s or 60s, adding to the Social Security burden.
President Bush repeated some nonsense spread by the right-wing organizations when he said that black people do not live as long on average, so they do not collect their fair share of Social Security. The average from black people is low because many of them die as infants and teenagers. At birth, White: 77.1, Black 71.1. If black people survive until age 65, their remaining life is almost as long as white people's. White: 17.8 years, Black 16.1 years. See Table 12B:
http://www.efmoody.com/estate/lifeexpectancy.html
Overall, black people collect more Social Security than white people because they tend to retire earlier with disabilities.
People are often confused by averages, but in this case there is no confusion. The assertion has been corrected again and again by experts from the Census Bureau and elsewhere, but the right-wing groups continue to repeat it. (Bush may be honestly confused, because he appears to be innumerate.)
Sorry to get off-topic.
- Jed
