I take it then that no one here actually knows the failure rate of condoms
with regard to protection from aids.
No one here does, but people elsewhere do. I have some friends at the CDC who could tell you all about it.
Yet there are such fervent beliefs expressed regarding promoting condom use as "safe sex". I can not see why this posture is not utterly reckless.
This conclusion is based on extensive, careful fieldwork by experts. You should not try to second-guess these experts judging by a few idle comments by non-experts at this forum. No one here has even tried to research this question seriously. I read papers about AIDS years ago, and I know a thing or two about public health, but I would have to read a few books and a dozen papers on the subject before I would be willing to venture a serious opinion on the matter. My default opinion is to agree with experts who have spent years working in the field. If you seriously believe there may be a problem with this, you should read a large sample of the relevant literature carefully, and then try to work out a model based on actual data, rather than haphazard guesses.
The experts are not always right, but someone who knows nothing about a field can seldom find a problem right off the bat. That is the lesson of cold fusion. The experts in CF have been right all along. People from outside the field have parachuted in, looked at a few results, and jumped to the unwarranted conclusion.that there must be a mistake in the experiments. They are wrong. I have not examined the literature on AIDS carefully, but I am confident that you are incorrect, and your model does not reflect reality. As Leaking Pen pointed out, you are assuming all partners are HIV positive. I would add that you talked about people having sex 7 years after becoming positive. Most HIV positive people in the third world, where AIDS is a problem, are dead after 7 years. Many of the ones who are still alive are too sick to have sex. Also, people do not go around having sex at random with every available person. Even promiscuous people have very few partners.
You should look at some actual case studies. Consider Japan, for example. It is a very promiscuous society. This is not modern trend; it has been that way since at least the 11th century as far as I know. (This is one of reasons I think it is ridiculous to suggest that promiscuity is a product of modern life or that peoples morals suddenly changed when contraceptives were invented.) Prostitution is rampant in Japan. Edo period arts and drama spotlight prostitution and celebrate it more than in any other society I have ever heard of. Well known prostitutes were national celebrities. Yet the incidence of AIDS in Japan is low, and it is not increasing. Many public health experts have concluded that one of the biggest contributing factors is that condoms are widely used in Japan, and they are of excellent quality.
- Jed
