Jed,
So computers are already within a factor of 1 million. Perhaps they will have to come within a 3 to 5 orders of magnitude before they begin to look intelligent to us.
Wait a second. I hate to harp on a "silly" toy, and a hyped-up news story, largely overlooked in its ultimate impact, but consider ....
Once again, consider that the real "meaning" behind the announcement of the Xbox 360 relates pecisely to this cross-comparion between man and machine..
The SciAm article says that "Synaptic activity is staggering: 10 quadrillion (10^16) neural connections a second." Yet the Xbox has can process video signals at teraflop speed. A flop is actually equal to **more than one neural connection,** probably, because a flop can be discriminating in its target data, while a neural signal cannot - it is just a war polling signal (a "ping," if you will).
OK, are you with me? Now a "tera-" is 10^15... ERGO we are only a FACTOR OF TEN away in raw power, NOW in 2005, if SciAm is correct, and if one flop= one neural connection, even if Cyc doesn't work well. WE might actuall be equal already if a flop=10 neural connections. Nevertheless, of course we are many years further away in the all-important category of software unless Cyc does perform the way it was planned to (with the input of several hundred of the most brilliant computer perople on the planet).
I think they will also need radically new software. My sense is that programs like Cyc will not cut the mustard.
Perhaps. I thought this as well before talking to one of the people who graduated from the Cyc Training course and had a chance to play with the... what do you call it? it's now said to be more than a mere machine... anyway this was years ago and even then he was blown away by the surprising intelligence level. But there is just one Cyc in all the world and they are very, very restrained about discussing the capabilities.
All my info is second hand as I have never been "Cyced-out" shall we say, but if you are going to do a piece on this, please try to track down and interview someone who has actually worked in Austin with the...err... beast? I think you may be surprised about what they tell you.
In the terminology of systems-analysis, the key to a quantum leap, or drastic change in capability, when only incremental growth is the driving force, is what is known as an "emergent property"... which 'modus operandi' is exactly the same thing which happens in animal brains (neurons) over time, really. Let's say a chimp has 10^15 neural connections/sec and limited intelligence. Let evolution throw in ten times this many and you have your emergent property = human intelligence.
Sounds too simple to be true? ... perhaps, but the only other alternative involves theology... take your pick.
Jones
