Jed Rothwell wrote:
Researchers at Georgia Tech (rah, rah!) believe that global warming is
causing stronger hurricanes. See:
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8002
Other articles have pointed out that other factors are at work, such
as a natural 20-year cycle, but these factors are reportedly not
sufficient to explain the increase in destructive hurricanes. As I
mentioned, the Japanese meteorological agency researchers recently
claimed that the overall worldwide energy released from hurricanes has
increased, that the force and duration of hurricanes striking Japan
has increased (this is indisputable), and that global warming is a
significant contributing factor.
Of course there are legitimate atmospheric researchers who disagree
with these findings. This is not a settled issue.
I was amused to note that journalist and self-appointed atmospheric
expert researcher Charles Krauthammer dismissed the very idea of that
global warming may have contributed to the ferocity of the Katrina
hurricane. I would like to ask him what he based to that claim on, and
how many papers in atmospheric science he has read. After years of
dealing with CF, I am heartily sick of instant experts who pontificate
about research they know nothing about. Of course I know nothing about
atmospheric science, but I admit it! I point out that there is
legitimate debate, and the issue is not settled. And I do not
categorically declare that I am sure one side or the other is correct.
The problem is, by the time the debate is fully settled it may be too
late to do stave off a catastrophe. We must act on the basis of
incomplete and unsure information.
- Jed
I've done some climatology and its perfectly reasonable that the
greenhouse effect may be faster and more damaging than the modelers
predict. There are a lot of problems with the climate modeling but the
underlying theory, add more CO2 and it gets hotter, still holds. Bigger
storms also mean more cloud. These reflect sunlight and cool the planet.
The hurricanes may be natures way of re-establishing the temperature.
DMS dimethyl sulphide, a compound produced by plankton in response to
salinity, seeds the clouds. It may be nutrient dependent. If the seas
were 5% fresher we would not get storm clouds at all. The shape and size
of a storm may depend on the distribution of surface salinity. The rain
from a hurricane freshens the water in some places and diminishes the
storm while wave mixing re-equalizes the salinity. DMS distributions are
still poorly understood.
