Excellent news. Let us hope they quickly extend that to plug-in hybrids.
But they do not give a timetable. And we should remember that although over
200,000 hybrid cars will be sold in the U.S. this year, total automobile
sales are ~17 million
J. D. Power-LMC predicts that hybrid sales will reach 3% of the U.S. market
by 2010. (http://www.jdpower.com/news/releases/pressrelease.asp?ID=2005013)
This will have no effect on the environment or global warming. There will
only be significant progress in the US if government, consumers and
manufacturers make a commitment to rapid, fundamental, radical changes.
There is no question that the industry can change quickly. In the 1960s
automobile safety was increased by a huge measure with the introduction of
hundreds of new safety regulations. (Before then there were virtually no
safety regulations.) In the 1970s they doubled efficiency, and reduced
pollution by a factor of 20. With strong leadership, we could catch up to
the Japanese and the Italians within five or 10 years. New automobiles in
Japan now get about 40 mpg average. If ours did that we would not be
importing oil.
Hybrid cars seem to be more common in Japan than in the US. At least, you
see more different models in the showroom and streets, including vans and
things. When hybrid sales increase, the average mpg should rise to around
50 or 60. Once plug-in hybrids become common, Japan will reduce oil imports
to negligible levels. It is already on a path to doing this.
Most Japanese electricity comes from hydroelectricity or nuclear power, and
nuclear power is being increased, so this will reduce CO2 emissions. They
plan to generate about 10% of electricity (or 100 GW) with roof-based
solar PV by 2030. See:
http://www.earthscan.co.uk/news/article.asp?UAN=350&SP=332775698126342377300&v=3
I think 100 GW should be enough to meet the increased demand from plug-in
hybrids. As I have pointed out here previously, converting the entire
automobile fleet to electricity would take much less energy than you would
think, and a far smaller fraction of total energy than today's automobile
fleet consumes.
- Jed
