Alex Caliostro wrote:
yes and it appears the rush to alternative energy and talk of peak oil
have scared someone
"Oil reserves are double previous estimates, says Saudi
By Saeed Shah
The Saudis have zero credibility on this topic, in my opinion and in the
opinion of many experts. They have consistently exaggerated their reserves.
All OPEC members do, because quotas are allocated based on reserves. Actual
oil field data is a closely guarded secret in all OPEC countries. Even the
U.S. oil companies now admit that new reserves are being "discovered" at
half the rate of present consumption. This was in a print advertisement
this week, and it has been common knowledge for years.
The word "discovery" does not really apply to oil in the usual sense. It is
not as if explorers wearing pith helmets in the desert stumble upon
unexpected fields. Every potential oil field on Earth has was carefully
inventoried by satellite and on the ground decades ago. There have been no
substantial discoveries in the Middle East since Abu Dhabi in 1954. The
fact that the Arctic slope of Alaska is a major oil field was established
in 1923, although detailed exploration was not done until much later. While
it is impossible to establish exactly how much oil each spot holds, the
absolute physical and geological limits were established 70 years ago, and
there have been no surprises since then. For example, we know the "oil
window." This is minimum and maximum depth at which oil can occur: 7,000 to
15,000 feet. Drilling rigs reached 15,000 feet in 1938. There is no point
to drilling any deeper for oil, because geothermal heat breaks it down into
gas. (Deffeyes, p. 8) We know that there can be no oil under the oceans
beyond the continental shelf.
Periodically you hear rumors about fantastic new reserves discovered in
Alaska or the Gulf of Mexico but these usually fade away. Sometimes, fields
produce more than the experts predicted, but more often they produce less
-- or nothing. In other words, after-the-fact analyses show that experts
tend to be too optimistic.
"Expanding reserves" means that experts are going back with better
instruments or test wells to establish a more detailed and reliable
inventory, or they are using more advanced technology to pump out the
remaining oil, which depletes the oil field more rapidly.
Kenneth Deffeyes has written the most understandable books and newspaper
articles on these topics. See:
http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/
(Some of his articles are available here, along with photos of his
grandchild and some of his favorite recipes. He is a folksy guy.)
- Jed
