Michael Foster wrote:
Actually, I'd say don't buy the hype, but buy the car anyway. It's true
that if many of the features incorporated into the Prius were incorporated
into a non-hybrid you could have a car that got within shaving distance of
the same mileage for $3000 less.
Yes, you could *barely* achieve the same performance. You would end up with
a small, stripped-down, noisy, dangerous and underpowered conventional car,
whereas the Prius is a midsize luxury car, very safe and quiet. The reason
you can still achieve this kind of performance is what might be called the
"last stage flowering" effect. Obsolescent technology borrows from the next
generation and leaps ahead in the last stages of its development, just
before it vanishes. The first generation of practical oceangoing steamships
were only little faster than the fastest clipper sailing ships, but 20
years later they were *far* faster, bigger and safer. The clipper ships
were fast because they borrowed some steam technology (steam tugboats) and
because they tapped into the burgeoning advances in the science of
shipbuilding.
Hybrids have just began, whereas conventional cars have been under
development for 120 years. When hybrids hit their stride they will leave
conventional designs in the dust.
Hybrids are derived from conventional cars, just as steamships were derived
from sailing ships. Steamships rapidly assumed new shapes, and incorporated
advances and capabilities that could never have been installed into sailing
ships, such as steam winches, and far larger hulls and capacity. The same
will happen with hybrids. They will diverge, and advance. Obviously, the
most important advance will be the plug-in hybrid.
I find it fascinating that the European auto manufacturers have the same
attitude as Michael Foster. They are saying: "What is so great about
hybrids? Our diesel cars get even better mpg performance." They are smart
cookies (and so is Mike) but they are missing the point.
By buying a hybrid, you help advance the technology to the
point where it will really make a difference.
I think it really makes a difference now. The Prius already gives you 10
miles per gallon more than the best small car on the road, and it carries a
lot more stuff, in comfort and safety.
For example, when the regenerative braking is able to recover a much
higher portion of the lost energy it will all have been worth it, no?
This could be accomplished by such means as a supercapacitor to serve as
intermediate storage for the battery, a flywheel for the same purpose . . .
That would be a kludge, I think. Both would have large disadvantages
compared to batteries. As I said, the Prius is an engineering masterpiece,
with the systems superbly integrated together.
. . . or a more advanced battery.
That would make it a hybrid, wouldn't it?
These things might even be available as retrofits.
Retrofits are fine for geeks and early adopters, but they will never sell
to the broader public.
- Jed
