Beene wrote:
. . . but you are definitely incorrect on several details about influenza
despite your supposed high level contacts at CDC.
Low level. Basement level. Which gives them credibility, in my opinion.
The CDC has recently admitted publicly that a specific vaccine for humans
which is effective in preventing this strain of avian influenza has not
yet been developed . . .
Actually, they now have something that seems be working pretty well with
the native bird species, although it takes a huge dose of the stuff.
Unfortunately if the virus becomes easily transmissible and it will
probably also become immune to the present vaccine, but at least this gives
them useful information and a good starting point.
- and that Tamiflu is only a stopgap of limited usefullness for healthy
adults. End of Story.
A stopgap is *way* better than nothing! It reduces mortality with ordinary
influenza. It appears to have an effect with avian influenza in people as
well, but there have been few test cases. By the time most patients come to
the hospital is usually too late.
> Bush has sought to downplay this information, not to warn us about it.
You must have been watching another channel.
In the last few weeks he has begun warning people, but for many years
before that he did nothing. To be fair, the Clinton administration also did
nothing, as far as I know. The present administration has built several
splendid new structures here in Atlanta to replace the World War II era
rotting buildings on the CDC campus, but unfortunately in order to pay for
these buildings it wants to fire all the researchers.
> Influenza is one of the most deadly diseases.
Any disease is serious.
Influenza kills tens of thousands of people per year in the U.S. It is the
7th most deadly disease in the U.S., accounting for 3% of all deaths. Most
US victims are either elderly or babies, but the 1918 avian flu killed
mainly healthy young people between 10 and 40, for reasons that are now
becoming clear, now that the virus has been brought back to life. Their
very healthiness -- their strong antibody system -- is what killed them.
The new virus might do the same thing.
We should be talking about the cost effectiveness of the solution. Every
strain is different. Last years avian flu is markedly different from this
years. Last year's shot won't work well either. End of Story.
That is why broad-based research is needed to improve vaccine development
and manufacturing techniques. As I said, most of the efforts now being
devoted to avian flu will also be effective with future forms of flu and
with many other infectious diseases such as tuberculosis. This fight will
never end.
There is no effective vaccine now for this new strain of avian flu. End of
Story.
That is incorrect. Also, the story is only beginning, and it will never
end. They will be another strain after this and another after that.
Obviously they can't do a study on this current strain of Avian flu until
next year. Every year you need to find the new strain ahead of time.
But previous strains tell you a great deal -- often enough to develop a
vaccine. In fact the revived 1918 virus might even offer important clues
for dealing with the present version because they are both avian varieties.
Interesting footnote: if research into the 1918 virus proves to be the key
to developing an effective vaccine for the 2005 variety in time, and this
action prevents the death of hundreds of millions of people, it will mean
that Abraham Lincoln twice saved civilization. The revived virus was made
with DNA fragments from three sources: a grave in the Alaskan permafrost,
and two tissue samples from a federal repository established by Abraham
Lincoln during the Civil War. There are other tissue banks in the world,
but this is the best, with the most complete collection, as you might
expect from the federal government. The feds are nothing if not thorough.
Researchers have scoured tissue banks and graves throughout the world but
this is the only one that had what they were looking for.
Researchers at CDC found that in general giving workers a flu vaccine
costs much more than not vaccinating -- as much as $65.59 more per person
during one flu season. It would be much more with the high cost and
non-specificity of Tamiflu.
Actually, Tamiflu is effective when when the symptoms develop, during the
first few days. It is also used when the patient was exposed to the virus.
It is not used for nonspecific applications because it is far too
expensive. It does not prevent the disease, but it reduces the severity of
the symptoms in many patients, which often prevents serious organ damage or
death.
. . . During the second season, the vaccine did match perfectly for the
circulating flu strains and significantly cut illness but not cost: 1% of
the vaccinated workers got the flu, while 10% of unvaccinated workers did.
90% of the unvaccinated workers did not catch the flu.
Nevertheless, even during the second season, the cost of vaccinating half
of the workers still outweighed the economic benefits by over $11 per
person at Ford in this example.
This kind of analysis does not even begin to apply to a fatal pandemic such
as the ones in 1918 version and 1958!
According to all reports Tamiflu is a broad based vaccine . . .
It is not a vaccine. It does not produce antibodies, the way vaccines do.
It inhibits viral "neuraminidase" (the surface enzyme that allows the virus
to separate itself from cells).
and not specifically targeted to the current avian strain, so we are just
like the Ford study in the first year. Not useful.
You have that backward. It is useful because it is not specifically
targeted to the current avian strain. It works with all forms of influenza.
- Jed
