It is hard for me not to consider that currenbt oil price crash is linked to LENR, but I agree that the losers will desperately ignore their fate
http://www.princeton.edu/~rbenabou/papers/Groupthink%20IOM%202012_07_02%20BW.pdf the more their fate is certain, the more their peers can punish them, the more they will deny the reality. on the opposite those who are immune to critics, who can benefit, will embrace the reality immediately. one possibilities is that some people, speculators, tycoon, who are aware of tha blackswan bet on LENR, and that others around just react. some rationalize by finding white swan explanations (shales)... problem is that all media and academies cannot consider LENR as it is a forbidden hypothesis. but markets don't care, if some anonylous trader is aware of LENR his question is just how long is his horizon... if it is few days like most tradersn he will not care... if he is a lonterm investor, he will try to enjoy high price of oil until he fear that some of his mate change their strategy too... one rule of traders can maintain the status quo, it is that you should not play against the market (the groupthink) even if you know the reality. Investors are not in that principle 2014-12-30 4:35 GMT+01:00 Jed Rothwell <[email protected]>: > Blaze Spinnaker <[email protected]> wrote: > > If they've repro'd LENR or whatever in their labs, I am pretty sure even >> the Saudi's can see more than 1 move ahead in chess. >> > > Only if they have heard of this, and they believe it, which I strongly > doubt. > > >> I think saying this is not connected is saying you don't really believe >> that anyone has actually achieved anything significant yet. >> > > In my case, I think that what has been achieved in cold fusion is the most > significant technology since the invention of fire. However, I think there > is no connection to the price of oil because very few people realize what > has been done in cold fusion. I have spoken with people in the oil business > and other conventional energy systems. They have no knowledge of this. Even > even if they did know, I am pretty sure they would dismiss it. That's human > nature. People do not want to seriously consider things that will bankrupt > them and end their careers. Here is an example from W. Isaacson's book "The > Innovators" which I am just reading. In 1973, the head of a Xerox research > facility in Webster, NY told one of the people from Xerox PARC, "The > computer will never be as important to society as the copier." (p. 294) > > - Jed > >
