> From: Jed Rothwell > > > Zell, Chris wrote: > >Cold weather makes electric cars even worse. The public wants wasteful, > >gas sucking monster SUV's , not dinky, "75 mile range", recharge - over >> night Toys.
> I think you are wrong about that. Millions of people would love to > have an electric car with a 75-mile range if it costs about as much > as a comparable gasoline model. I would love to have one! I seldom > drive the Geo Metro more than 10 miles per day, and it does not go > over 55 mph (except maybe downhill). (My wife drives the Prius.) > Hundreds of millions of people may prefer gasoline vehicles, but a > vehicle with a 75-mile range would be a strong niche product with > more than enough people to support profitable production. A lot > stronger than motorcycles, I think. > > Clayton Christensen wrote an interesting chapter about this in the > book The Innovator's Dilemma. He said, among other things, that > parents with teenage children might want to buy underpowered limited > range electric cars precisely because they cannot go 120 mph or 100 > miles away from home. Most American families already have a gasoline > car, so this would be a second car for urban dwellers. As such, it is > a lot more practical, safer and faster than a bicycle, motorcycle or > taxicab. Millions of people live in cities after all. > > These cars have advantages besides eco-friendliness. As noted in the > article they cost less to run and to maintain. They are simple and > long-lasting. Traditional lead acid batteries may not last long but > they can be recycled. If GM had engineered and marketed their EV > properly they would be selling 100,000 a year by now. However, the > hybrid gasoline car makes pure EVs obsolete, and the plug-in hybrid > makes all other vehicles obsolete and not worth considering -- and > that includes ethanol fueled vehicles. The only reasonable > alternative to a gasoline plug-in hybrid is a diesel plug-in hybrid. > - Jed I agree with much of what Jed has to say on this topic. In the meantime I'm also crossing my fingers that MPI may be able to pull a magic rabbit or two out of the hat. But for now, based on what is selling in showrooms today, it seems to me that the biggest problem may have more to do with the fact that autos are often considered strong virility symbols, especially when testosterone is added into the equation. Therefore, the bigger and stronger my auto is... I think it would likely require take a very long and protracted reeducation program to make major portions of a testosterone-handicapped society rethink its absurd love affair with the gas guzzler. As much as they may hate the cost of rising gas, feeling neutered while puttering around in a wimpy EV is even more terrifying. If magnetic power modules don't pan out as quickly as we hope they might, another dilemma may turn out to be the fact that many one-car owners may be forced to purchase two cars - a short range and a long ranger. The latter, obviously being more of a gas hog. It's true for me that approximately 90% of my driving can be accomplished well within a 5 or 10 mile range. Another 5% in perhaps 30 - 40 miles, which is still well within the range of EVs on the market today. I suspect less than 5% of my driving requires getting on the interstate and traveling from Madison to Chicago or Milwaukee. It make me wonder if it might actually turn out to be more economical to simply RENT a long-ranger for those planned inter-city trips. Rent one for the weekend trip, or whatever. Regards, Steven Vincent Johnson www.OrionWorks.com
