This is actually about energy policy.

I expect that Trump's Sec. of State Tillerson will be in charge of energy
policy. He was the head of Exxon until a few weeks ago. He says that the
U.S. should bar the Chinese from accessing the islands they have recently
constructed. See:

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/01/12/us/politics/12reuters-congress-tillerson-china.html

I expect he feels so strongly about this because under his leadership,
Exxon signed an agreement with Vietnam to drill wells in the South China
Sea, and China is blocking that with its new islands.

The only way to "bar" the Chinese military would be to shoot down their
airplanes. I know enough about those islands and Chinese cruise missiles to
know that if the U.S. does that, we will be in a shooting war, and the
Chinese navy will instantly sink our ships. They have thousands of
missiles. Essentially, Tillerson wants the U.S. to go to war with China on
behalf of Exxon and Vietnam.

I cannot begin to guess whether Trump will actually do this or not. The man
is a complete mystery to me. I wouldn't put it past him. As I said, I know
enough ships, cruise missiles and the like to know this would end in about
an hour with the sinking of every U.S. ship involved, in the worst naval
defeat since Pearl Harbor. I suppose the Navy knows this, and would caution
Trump not to order an attack.

Most modern wars are about oil.

- Jed

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