On Feb 12, 2006, at 10:30 AM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
There's a good bit of chatter on the esoteric portion of the www
about the world's waning wobble. Here is the actual data:
http://maia.usno.navy.mil/plot-eop.html
Some attribute this to the Great Rat of Sumatra or the earthquake
in that area. But is this a chicken or an egg?
I don't know what the "this" in the above sentence references or what
the Great Rat of Sumatra is or what earthquake you reference, so I'm
a bit lost here!
This is indeed a neat web site - I wish I had more time right now to
look into it:
http://maia.usno.navy.mil/
I will say the length of day (LODS) data is nice evidence for a
periodically changing gravimagnetic field. It demonstrates
gravimagnetic induction due to a changing gravimagnetic field: dK/
dt. To make sense of the data it seems reasonable to do a Fourier
analysis on it (as well as positional data) to look for unexpected
influences. It looks like there is 329 day cycle in the positional
data, and that period doesn't look familiar offhand.
It looks like a Fourier analysis might account for:
UT2-UT1 = 0.022 Sin(2*pi*T) - 0.012 cos(2*pi*T) - 0.006 sin(4*pi*T) +
0.007 cos(4*pi*T)
where T is in Besselian years, i.e approximately years. However, it
is very strange there should are biannual variations.
There is also noted a long term (secular) slowing trend in the
Earth's rotation. The web site notes: "The ancient observational
data form the basis for estimates of the secular deceleration in the
speed of rotation. ... The secular variation of the rotational speed
seen by the apparently linear increase in the length of the day is
due chiefly to tidal friction. The Moon raises tides in the ocean
diminishing the speed of rotation. This effect causes a slowing of
the Earth's rotational speed resulting in a lengthening of the day by
about 0.0015 to 0.0020 seconds per day per century." I would note
there are additional reasons for such a secular trend. These are (a)
continual buildup of meteoric dust on the Earth, thus increasing the
moment of inertia I and thus decreasing angular velocity, and (b)
global warming. It may also be true there is a secular decreasing or
increasing of the ambient gravimagnetic field.
Global warming increases the Earth's diameter by crustal expansion.
If there were a steel ring about the Earth's equator, and it
increased in size by 0.01 percent due to thermal expansion, then,
ignoring warping, crunching and crinkling of the band, the Earth's
diameter would increase by 0.01/Pi percent. This too thus increases
the moment of inertia I_earth and thus decreases angular velocity. I
would also point out that secular variations in Earth's moment of
inertia cannot be accounted for by atmospheric variation because
average wind speed is limited to the speed of sound.
However, the secular trend in angular velocity change appears to be
*very very small* when looking at long term data! See:
http://141.74.1.36/MainDisp.csl?pid=95-103
It shows angular velocity lows around 1696, 1752, 1811, 1846, 1887
(small min), 1894, 1902, 1912, 1945, 1993. See Table 1 below.
Yr dt(Yrs) w_earth(prad/sec)
1696 0 151
1752 56 151.2
1811 59 151.42
1846 35 151.12
1887 41 151.50
1902 15 148.34
1912 10 148.18
1945 33 150.28
1993 48 149.47
Table 1 - Relative minimum angular velocity points
It looks like we should throw out 1902 to get Table 1A.
Yr dt(Yrs) w_earth(prad/sec)
1696 0 151
1752 56 151.2
1811 59 151.42
1846 35 151.12
1887 41 151.50
1912 25 148.18
1945 33 150.28
1993 48 149.47
Table 1A - Relative minimum angular velocity points
Similarly, we have the maximums in Table 2.
Yr dt(Yrs) w_earth (prad/sec)
1725 0 151.4
1797 72 152.3
1827 30 152.73
1867 39 153.91
1891 24 151.96
1934 42 151.53
1988 54 150.35
Table 2 - Relative maximum angular velocity points
Combining Tables 1a and 2, and approximating a relative dW/dt the
gravimagnetic induction, we have table 3.
Yr dt(Yrs) W dW dW/dt
1696 0 151
1725 29 151.4 +0.40 +13.8
1752 27 151.2 -0.20 -7.4
1797 45 152.3 +0.10 +2.2
1811 14 151.42 -0.88 -62.9
1827 16 152.73 +1.31 +81.9
1846 19 151.12 -1.61 -84.7
1867 21 153.91 +2.79 +132.8
1887 20 151.50 -2.41 -120.5
1891 4 151.96 +0.46 +115.0
1912 21 148.18 -3.78 -180.0
1934 22 151.53 +3.35 +152.2
1945 11 150.28 -1.25 -113.6
1988 43 150.35 +0.07 +1.6
1993 8 149.47 -0.88 -110.0
Table 3 - Extreme angular velocity points
We can see there were some wild ambient gravimagnetic field
fluctuation from 1860 to 1945, with a peak around 1912, and it looks
like the wild swings in gravimagnetic induction are about to come back.
A wild and unjustified speculation follows! At first glance this
gravimagnetic induction data looks like it arises from a pair of
mutually orbiting black holes that do not have parallel alignment of
their spin axes. Interestingly, a period of about 0.9 years shows up
in the polar data at:
http://maia.usno.navy.mil/plot-eop.html
So, the speculation is the Earth local gravimagnetic induction is due
to wild variations in Earth's ambient gravimagnetic field due to the
mutual torquing of two black holes when in close proximity. Their
mutual orbital period is about 40 years, with wild variations in
orbital parameters and precession when in close proximity caused by
their powerful mutual gravimagnetic influences. An overall cycle of
191 years is due to departure of the black holes from close proximity
and thus the powerful mutual gravimagnetic influences, which are a 1/
r^3 effect. It looks like the black holes may have a mutually caused
precession rate of about 0.9 years with a beat frequency of about 7
years. It looks like things are heating up between them, and a
really big merger event is not far off - within a millennium.
Speculation shield off.
Lots of calculation and modeling are required to make certain sense
of the data. Coincidentally, I already have a nice chunk of the
computational capability required to do this, but not the time.
Horace Heffner
