The ICE may be on the way out - that much is true... at least in principle and over the long horizon. But few of us will be around to witness this.
My guess is that (like it or not) the demise of hydrocarbon fueled vehicles will be long and protracted and may require 50 years or more. In fact, the next big advance could surprise all the experts. The Manelas device is a contender - but there is way too little data to make any kind of real world prediction (other than it would provide free air conditioning - which means that almost every vehicle produced would need one for that purpose alone). Another alternative, with less of a data-gap is hydrogen fuel. If (big IF) the advances in photo-catalyzed water-splitting were not as hyped up as they are - then the ICE could easily enjoy a second life burning H2 in either a converted ICE or in the fuel cell. Hydrogen fueled vehicles could cost less than battery power - given lithium and cobalt shortages. And the fuel cell, always overhyped - has never been free of a need for platinum so the trusty old piston engine could be around for a long, long time. Plus, even LENR technology (or Mills/Holmlid etc), if it is ever commercialized - may involve splitting water with high enough efficiency to envision the water-car of legend. The on-board water splitter is coupled with an ICE and genset. Again, the fuel cell may not be the best option. In 2019 the estimates are for the worldwide auto production of 17 million vehicles of which less than one million will be plug-in electric. That depends on tax incentives, which are phasing out and are unlikely to be fully renewed in the USA. It would not surprise any expert if takes a decade or more for electric car production to reach parity with carbon burning - and that may never happen without incentives. Brian Ahern wrote: I agree with Bob. The Manelas Device development will represent a fundamental change in transportation.From: [email protected] <[email protected]> The ICE is a short-lived feature of transportation technology—with a half -life of ½ that of horses when it came on the scene early in the 1900’s replacing the horses. It will only carry on as an antique power source with minimal-to-no technological improvements.
