Actually, this gets even more complicated. You have to factor in what
I suppose should be called "timeliness" or "usefulness" or simply the
value per kilowatt hour. As noted, gas turbines are used for peak
power when it is most needed. Wind turbines produce energy when the
wind blows, which may or may not be the time when you most want
electricity. Often it happens in the middle of the night. Some
analysts have discounted the value of wind generate electricity for
this reason. This is quite reasonable; if you already have enough
baseline nuclear power, additional wind power in the middle of the
night will either have to be stored -- which adds to the cost -- or
thrown away.
However, as it happens, rooftop or large-scale solar installations in
the Southwest U.S. usually produce electricity just when it is most
needed: when the sun shines brightly and millions of air conditioners
turn on. So solar in some geographic locations is more useful than
wind, and likely to produce more valuable energy. In other words,
solar produces electricity that is worth more to power company per
kilowatt hour, and that will likely never need storage or extensive
load-balancing. So even if a large-scale solar installation costs
more per kilowatt of capacity than a wind farm, it is probably worth
more, too, and it should be selected anyway.
All this complexity will disappear if cold fusion can be perfected.
In fact, libraries full of books about complex and vital energy
engineering techniques will soon be worth nothing, and the knowledge
will forgotten, except by a handful of experts who deal with arcane
obsolete & ancient technology. In the Smithsonian History and
Technology Museum, it is said that nearly every machine on exhibit
has been repaired and refitted and is probably in working condition.
There are hundreds of experts in the museum who can fix just about
anything, from Tycho Brahe's astrolabe to an early 19th-century steam
locomotive. Decades from now there will be people at the Smithsonian
who understand what load-balancing is and why solar energy was more
valuable in the Southwest U.S. than it was in Denmark (where the wind
happens to blow when people most need electricity). Everyone else in
society will have forgotten all about the sort of thing -- and it
cannot happen too soon for me.
- Jed
- Re: Update on Energy Costs Jed Rothwell
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