Mike Carrell wrote:
----- Original Message ----- From: "Michel Jullian" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Subject: Re: Can't Meet Oil Demand . . . Duh!
Less than ten years left?
Nah, won't run out in 10 years. But as supply peaks and demand keeps
rising, a gap must open, which will result in a dramatic leap in the
price of everything, and as the price increases inevitably result in
imposition of price controls, the combination will lead to severe shortages.
Worse than we had been told, and one could
expect the head of exploration for a large oil company to know about
these things.
This leaves us little time to find a replacement technology, come on
guys!
The good news is that air pollution should fall dramatically within a
decade.
So why do you think some of us have been doggedly defending 'cold
fusion' and BlacklightPower all these years? The latter may be about
ready to hatch. The announcement is not that there is *no oil left*, but
that the supply can't be increased to meet the demand, which means that
prices will rise, tempers will flare, and people might have to change
their ways and priorities, driven by that most reliable of all lashes,
price. That's just one issue. Potable water is another.
Right, but the water situation isn't likely to blow up the same way as
the oil situation, because the people most affected are the poorest, who
are least able to do anything about it.
According to what I read recently something close to 2 billion people
are living in the shantytowns which have accreted around many of the
large cities of the world, and for the most part they're doing without
little luxuries like water and sewer hookups. OTOH the scenario in
Harrison's "Make Room! Make Room!" in which New York City was starved
for fresh water (among other things!) doesn't seem likely to happen any
time soon -- indeed, it's still hard to imagine how a lot of the world
lives while sitting in a detached house in a comfortable 'burb in the USA.
But while the shantytown residents just cope quietly with their bouts of
cholera and rarely get more notice than a brief story in the back pages
of the paper, when the gasoline runs short and American SUV owners have
to queue up to pay $10 a gallon for the stuff we may very well see riots
or worse.
(Boy, working on taxes puts me in a weird mood...)
Mike Carrell
Michel
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13130-2124287,00.html
"World 'cannot meet oil demand'
By Carl Mortished, International Business Editor
THE world lacks the means to produce enough oil to meet rising
projections of demand for fuel over the next decade, according to
Christophe de Margerie, head of exploration for Total and heir
presumptive to the leadership of the French energy multinational."
WTF has everyone been. Earth's tank is half empty.
Terry
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