On Dec 8, 2007, at 7:36 PM, R.C.Macaulay wrote:
Horace wrote..
Batteries and plug in hybrids, especially diesel hybrids that also
run on biodiesel, seem to be the likely winners for the future
I actually have a typo in the above. It should say "Batteries and
plug in hybrids, especially diesel hybrids that also run on
biodiesel, seem to be the likely winners for the NEAR future - i.e.
10 years or more." I also forgot methane vehicles, which could
catch on.
Howdy Horace,
Volkswagon seems to be focusing on diesel hybrids. Been watching
for them to introduce such in the USA. Would love to get my hands
on a 1/4 ton truck. Maybe they fear the intent of the Chinese that
are vocal about introducing such here at under price of 12k.
Why the big push in research in hydrogen if it's not going
anywhere? Your argument has merit.. makes sense.
A big research push is acceptable to the oil and coal industries,
especially if the source of the hydrogen is natural gas or coal.
Much better for them to dump government money into hydrogen stuff
that won't have significant impact for years (especially *their*
hydrogen stuff) rather than reduce the billions in incentives (now
charity) to the oil industry established when oil was under $20 a
barrel, and channel it into solar incentives. This kind of hydrogen
planning and research is being done now even though it should be
obvious to a child it is way more efficient to burn coal directly, or
burn natural gas directly in a car, and the infrastructure and proven
technology is in place to start doing this almost immediately. This
would only be a temporary and partial measure though, because there
is not enough natural gas to go around for this, and fossil fuel
consumption has to be reduced anyway.
If sufficient money were put into building a solar infrastructure and
HVDC power transmission system, a 1960's style moon shot sized
effort, we could have a new day in the USA in 5 years. That will
probably happen anyway with much delay, but we are going to lag way
behind Europe and others due to a lack of foresight or will in the US
Senate. The best strategy for oil and coal is to jack the financial
incentives and economic and legal conditions around so as many
renewable companies go out of business as possible - let them build
up and then pull the rug out from under them, one area at a time if
necessary. The problem with this strategy is many free world
governments have cleaned house politically, and the incumbents now
know the name of the game. The conversion from fossil fuel is well
underway in places like Germany, which is employing solar even though
solar conditions there are as bad as here in southern Alaska. Alaska
is currently cleaning house (actually House and Senate) by convicting
politicians and oil industry lobbyists of bribery. It wouldn't
surprise me at all to see some action of that kind on a national
level at some point. A lot of the current financial problems that
prevent the US from affording a major energy effort right now are at
least partially due to excessive financial industry lobbyist
exposure, be it legal or not. In my opinion we are probably headed
for stagflation again, and the only way out of that is increasing
productivity. The computer revolution has already happened so what's
the next big opportunity for productivity increase? Energy of
course. Hopefully it won't take politicians and voters 10 years to
figure that out.
Horace Heffner
http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
