The IEA is suggesting a $45T program and over $1T/yr to cut carbon
emissions 50% by 2050. See:
http://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=263
This is on the order of the $26-33T, $1.5T/yr, and 20 yrs I predicted
in 2005 would take for 100% conversion. See:
http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/BigPicture.pdf
http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/EnergyCosts.pdf
However, that projected cost was for 100% elimination of carbon fuels.
The primary difference is the IEA plan relies on 32 new nuclear
plants each year:
http://tinyurl.com/6387q2
and yet only 215 million sq m of solar panels total. That's only
about $4.3T for solar, at 200W/m^2 and a $1 a watt, numbers which
soon will be feasible.
The main reason for the long time and large cost of the IEA plan is
the principle use of conventional nuclear energy.
This strikes me as very short sighted. The principal developments
coming that will change this picture are:
1. Dramatic drops in cost per watt for solar power.
2. New cost effective technologies for energy storage and transmission.
3. Excessive risk, insurance costs, and political unrest associated
with nuclear plants due to vulnerabilities.
4. Extreme long term increases in carbon based material cost - making
the economics of solar more viable. Solar power production will have
long term exponential growth without any government program. All
government has to do is get out of the way. For example, any
environmental assessment should be environmental cost/benefit based.
When assessing the use of desert for example, we should compare the
risk of extermination of all the major species of the world against
partial the loss of life in a few thousand square meters of desert.
5. Carbon materials becoming be too valuable to burn, as opposed to
being used as feed stock.
6. Hopefully, the advent of fusion power or other clean nuclear based
equivalent in some form.
It appears most people just don't expect what is even already in the
works in solar energy development.
Best regards,
Horace Heffner
http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
