On Jun 23, 2008, at 1:31 AM, Michel Jullian wrote:
----- Original Message -----
From: "Horace Heffner" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Saturday, June 21, 2008 1:51 PM
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Nanosolar's 1 GW/yr solar cell printer
On Jun 21, 2008, at 3:12 AM, Michel Jullian wrote:
Nanosolar's 1 GW/yr solar cell printer presented by CEO Martin
Roscheisen here, with a video:
http://www.nanosolar.com/blog3/
If they sell the panels at $1/W as announced, they are aiming at a
$1B annual income, not too shabby :)
Michel
Yes, but that is just for one 1GW CIGS coater, which cost $1.65
million. On that basis, Nanosolar should be financially capable of
sustaining 10x to 100x per year growth rate - until resources, like
supplies, staff, land, or customers run out.
True, their growth rate promises to be astronomical (Jones wouldn't
agree ;)
The major impediments
to going all solar are bulk energy storage, i.e. large battery or
hydrogen generating systems, and low cost energy transmission
systems.
Storage is improving, latest lithium ion batteries for electric
cars with tens of thousands of cycles lifetime e.g. altairnano seem
promising,
Actually, A123 has them already beat to market it appears, and
Toshiba has some interfering patents. Altair stock (ALTI) is in the
dumps now, under $2/shr.
couldn't utilities give rebates to customers accepting to store
energy for them in their sometimes underused car batteries?
Many existing utilities will be slow to adapt smart meters, and many
already resist having to manage power coming from residences. Major
solar power generation utilities, however, if not hindered by
regulation, are highly motivated for fast growth and innovation.
As for transmission, what's wrong with current electric power
transmission lines?
Michel
They don't ship power well across oceans, and don't ship energy in
stored form, i.e. as hydrogen, nitrogen, or silicon compounds. The
biggest cost item may soon be land itself, and 3rd world desert will
be ideal for power generation. The major problems for global
renewable energy production are energy storage and shipping, but
these problems may be solved now the economics are right.
The content of some of my old posts on the subject are here:
http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/BigPicture.pdf
http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/EnergyCosts.pdf
http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/Hpipeline.pdf
http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/HotCold.pdf
Similar problems will exist specifically for the USA - because land
and sun are best in the southern desert areas, but adequate long
distance transmission facilities, in terms of either price or
capacity, are not available. High voltage DC systems may provide an
answer for that, but not overnight. Room temperature superconducting
transmission at a low capital cost would be good, but that is not in
sight yet. Hydrogen transmission systems would work well, but are
probably decades off. Electrolysis itself needs a lot of
improvement, though it is a viable technology now, depending on the
competing cost of energy.
I expect the biggest problems and roadblocks to renewable energy
development will continue to come from governments. Money for energy
research and development has been allocated in mere token amounts,
enough to give politicians talking points, but at less than one
percent of what is needed. LENR or ZPE or other solutions might even
be at hand now if enough money were spent on research, solutions
which bypass the storage and shipping problems altogether.
Best regards,
Horace Heffner
http://www.mtaonline.net/~hheffner/
