OrionWorks wrote:
> I hope that Mills succeeds and puts the fear of God
> into many cold fusion researchers, making them
> accelerate their efforts. You gotta love these people
> but . . . Oh my, how slow they are!
>
Wouldn't it be more likely to induce the "fear of God" within the hot
fusion society?
More likely a heart attack. I predict they will be defunct within a few years.
I do not know how effective the Mills gadget might become, measured
technically and financially. I have a rough idea . . . but anyway
assuming it is in the same order of magnitude as cold fusion, then
eventually it will bankrupt the fossil fuel industry and the electric
power industry. (Of course it is difficult to estimate how effective
cold fusion might become, but I made some rough estimates in the
book, based on the cost of materials, the cost of manufacturing
similar devices such as batteries, and so on.)
I expect it will take many years for the Mills effect to replace coal
and oil -- possibly decades. But I would not invest in oil and coal
right now. These will be declining industries. Actually, yesterday I
read somewhere that experts are now predicting that within 10 years
oil and gas will no longer be the most cost-effective energy source.
It will be something like wind power going into plug-in hybrid cars.
Once that happens the fossil fuel industry will enter irrevocable
decline. Once you cross the line and a new, developing technology
becomes slightly more cost-effective (perhaps in one niche
application), it inevitably goes on to clobber the old technology.
You can see examples in history such as steamships gradually
replacing sailing ships; semiconductor RAM replacing core memory; and
jet passenger aircraft replacing piston propeller craft in nearly all markets.
You might say there is more room for growth with the new technology.
People bring more inspiration and clear thinking to the job. For
example, in the late 50s someone at AT&T remarked that they had
learned more about semiconductors in 10 years than they had learned
in 40 years of research into vacuum tubes. It did not have to happen
that way. People continued to do research into vacuum tubes,
especially in Russia, and they made progress. But somehow the new
technology was more fun. Semiconductors turned out to be more
flexible, more broadly applicable, and more capable of doing new
things -- as I am sure cold fusion would be compared to coal and oil.
- Jed
