As I said last November, and in my book, I do not think that the
existing energy industry will develop cold fusion. In fact, I doubt
it will even succeed in developing wind energy. As Clayton
Christensen explained in the book "The Innovator's Dilemma," existing
industry leader seldom survives the transition to radically new
technology. This is not because the industry executives are stupid or
blind to change. It is because they are hemmed in by the need to keep
their existing business going, and by competition with other
companies in the same obsolete field.
Printed newspapers are now on the verge of extinction mainly because
of Craigslist, which took away their main steady source of income,
because of the Internet in general, and because of the economic
crisis. Here in Atlanta, the Atlanta Journal and Constitution is
shrinking before our eyes. It went down to 1 page of comics, which is
sad. But nothing can or should be done to save obsolete technology.
The collapse of the newspaper business confirms Christensen's hypothesis. See:
"How Newspapers Tried to Invent the Web, but failed"
http://www.slate.com/id/2207912/
Here is another good source:
"Do Newspapers Need Opinions? (Do Opinions Need Newspapers?)"
Mike Kinsley, 2004
http://sites.google.com/site/michaelkinsley/the-role-of-government/do-newspapers-need-opinions
QUOTE:
". . . Meanwhile, from the perspective of cyberspace, it was
astonishing to read that the Times just spent $45 million on new
printing facilities in order to get eight color pages into each
issue. Color pages cost nothing on the Internet.
Coming back from the web to traditional journalism, I have been
struck by all the small ways a newspaper seems antiquated (leaving
aside the big ways noted above). All the time and energy that go into
cutting a few lines here and adding them there, because a paper page
is inflexible. . . ."
Major Japanese newspapers have national coverage and they are fewer
in number -- there are only three -- so they are doing better than
American ones.
Progress in gadgets such as the Amazon.com Kindle reader will put
most remaining printed newspapers out of business in 10 or 20 years.
When these things achieve resolution and contrast as good or better
than paper, a color display, and a larger screen there will be no
reason left to print newspapers, magazines and other short-term
information on paper. It is only a matter of time before these
improvements are made. People may still want books printed on paper
for a while, although sales will surely fall and most people will
read most books in a gadget like the Kindle.
- Jed
