Various people here predicted this years ago. See: http://www.eweek.com/c/a/IT-Infrastructure/IBM-Using-DNA-to-Build-NextGeneration-Chips-674513/
I recently read Taleb's book, "The Black Swan." I was not impressed. His theme is that the future is difficult to predict. With regard to politics and events such as wars, he is right, but technology is not so difficult to predict, and not as random as he seems to believe. Cold fusion was a complete surprise, obviously, but it should not surprise anyone that a comprehensive solution to the energy crisis would emerge sooner or later, because there are so many candidates. Anyone here can probably list 8 or 10 potential solutions that might eventually be cheaper and more abundant than conventional sources, such as solar thermal, ocean current, space-based solar PV to microwave, helium-3, etc. That's even before you get into the controversial stuff such as Mills, cold fusion, magnetic motors and so on.
Taleb did not mention cold fusion, by the way. Another demerit. I found many of his examples hackneyed or unpersuasive. Some were even trivial, such as his repeated observation that people on their way to get exercise in New York City sometimes ride the escalators up to the gym. In Atlanta, they try to park as close the entrance as they can. It is true that people do this, and it is irrational. If these people would stop and think for a moment they would say, "ah, I should park at the far end of the lot and walk to the building. A short walk would be a good warm-up." But it slips their minds because it is a minor inefficiency. In the New York City gym the Taleb harps on, I wonder if he confirmed there is a convenient, safe staircase near the escalator. Many large buildings have only emergency stairwells, which are often dirty or scary.
- Jed
