Steven V Johnson wrote:
China is well positioned to exploit their strategic monopoly (ownership) on just about every single rare-earth mining operation currently in operation. Many countries outside of China (including the United States) may suffer dearly for our short sightedness...
It should be noted that the U.S. has plenty of rare earths, and we used to mine them. I do not think it would be difficult for us to begin mining them again, or that it would take a long time. Therefore, they could monopolize production for long.
The only reason we stopped is because the Chinese do it so cheaply. This is also why the U.S. stopped manufacturing so many goods. That may not be a good reason, but it is the reason -- not because we ran out or because they do it more efficiently.
Yesterday on NHK there was a segment on the LED lights now being introduced in Japan. The price has fallen from $100 to around $30 for (I believe) a 100 W incandescent equivalent. The companies jumping into the market all manufacture in China. They said "we just can't do it as cheaply in Japan." I find this appalling. I am a partial protectionist. There is something to be said for enforcing a national policy of manufacturing vital industrial goods, such as lights, in your own country even if it costs consumers a few more dollars.
The NHK voice-over announcer also made some inane and confused comments along the lines of:
These bulbs produce light with 1/8th as much electricity as incandescent bulbs [making them at least twice as efficient as CFL, and probably 3 or 4 times] and they now cost $30, versus about $5 for this kind of bulb [indicating a CFL]. And they last 40 times longer than a conventional bulb. But the question remains, can the average family afford them?
What an idiotic comment that is! Japanese people are the second richest on earth. Family income averages $67,000. They save more than any other people on earth. Over the life of the bulb, the LED saves you a bundle on cost of the bulb itself, not to mention the electricity. You can consider the purchase of a LED bulb a method of saving (or investing) except that it pays a better return than any bank or ordinary stock market investment, and it is guaranteed. So this comment translates into the question:
Can people who earn $67,000 per year afford to invest $30 in something that will return ~10% per annum for 20 years?
- Jed
