On 06/19/2010 09:34 PM, Jed Rothwell wrote: > Stephen A. Lawrence wrote: > > > Apparently, when BP was constructing the first gigantic cap for the > > well, some geologists experts from other oil companies were warning > > them that it would not work because hydrate ice would form and block > > the pipe. You'd think they would know that! > > What makes you think they did not know that, or at least suspect very > strongly that it would happen? > > . . . They knew the > probability of success was low, but the main point was to *appear* > to be > doing something. > > > I doubt that, because the latest fix is working. They are getting most > of the oil, and I just read that with additional equipment in a few > days they expect to get it all.
You may very well be right about the general thrust of things (sometimes I'm a pathological skeptic), but as to collecting "most" of the oil, here's an interesting quote from today's WSJ: > > The technical hiccup came a day after BP captured a record amount of > oil—more than 25,000 barrels of oil Thursday—after bringing in the > Q4000. The company was expecting to ramp up its recovery rate to more > than 50,000 barrels a day by the end of the month and to as much as > 80,000 by mid-July by bringing in additional equipment. So if they're getting "most" of the oil, and the most they've collected in a day is somewhat over 25,000 barrels, then there must not be more than 50,000 bbl/day leaking out, right? Yet, they hope to ramp up to a collection rate of 80,000 bbl/day by mid-July, with no assertion that even that higher number would include all the oil. Something doesn't add up. The 80,000 bbl/day number projected for mid-July makes it sound like the well must be spewing something on the order of 100,000 bbl/day, as some have claimed, which would put the current collection rate down around 25% of the spew rate.
