OrionWorks - Steven V Johnson wrote:
But, horror
of horrors, if Rossi turns out to be a sophisticated scam artist, and
we didn't catch that fact before the hard-core skeptics expose the
truth, we would be forced to assess whether our harsh opinion of
hard-core skeptics is really deserving.
There are two hypotheticals here:
IF Rossi is revealed as scam artist and
IF the hard-core skeptics are the ones who expose the truth.
The second does not follow from the first. If anyone exposes Rossi, it
will probably be an open minded person willing to look closely at the
claim, such as Kullander. It will not be a hard-core skeptic. I have not
been following Cude's posts carefully, but I do not think he has
proposed a method of fraud that we can check for. Other people, such as
Alan Fletcher, have pointed out potential problem. I would not call
Fletcher a hard-core skeptic by any means.
There have been many faulty cold fusion experiments. To my knowledge,
the hard-core skeptics have not discovered or described any of them. I
have pointed out many more real problems than they have.
If it turns out cold fusion is not real, I will not give the skeptics
any credit for betting against it. It is always a safe bet to predict
that a new claim in science is wrong. Look at the failure rate for
experiments or business ventures. If find a way to bet against such
things, on average you will win as surely as the house wins in a Los
Vegas casino. It does not take any skill or knowledge.
- Jed
