See: http://www.slate.com/id/2303250/
Photos of early personal computers: http://www.computerhistory.org/revolution/personal-computers/17/intro When a technology is just getting started, product designers do not know what the machines should look like. They do not understand what the customer wants, what works well, what is necessary and what can be dispensed with. Later, as the technology matures, products from many different manufacturers look more and more alike. Early typewriters and computers all look different from one another. Nowadays you can barely tell computers apart. I discussed this in chapter 7 of my book. Page 62 has a marvelous illustration of a future personal portable computer designed by a committee in 1981. The committee members had few practical ideas ideas about how computers should look what they should do. I can tell what they were thinking because this illustration comes from the transcript of the informal discussion they held, published in the Japanese edition of Scientific American. It is symptomatic of early machines that the designers don't know what it is they're trying to accomplish because they have no experience using the machines. It is not their fault. They tend to go overboard and throw in all sorts of features that are not called for. Early technology sometimes is more elaborate than later versions.This also happens because of what Frederick Brooks calls "the second system effect" (see The Mythical Man Month, chapter 5). As the technology matures, product designs tend to merge, and products begin to look alike. in some cases this happens quickly and deliberately because of government regulations, or because of industry standards. In the 1950s some U.S. automobiles had decorative fins and protrusions on the front bumper that many people thought resembled breasts. See: http://www.art.com/products/p13804728-sa-i2758790/bill-bachmann-detail-of-classic-car-57-chevy.htm These sharp objects and bumps injured people in accidents, especially pedestrians, so they were banned in the 1960s. Later, government fuel efficiency standards forced all cars to have rounded, aerodynamic shapes. In the 1980s, the need for industry standards and software compatibility quickly forced all computers to be IBM PC compatible, except for Apple computers. If cold fusion devices go into commercial production, in the early days of the technology I expect to see large variations such as: Internally, the type and morphology of the metal or powder, the operating temperature and other technical details. The size and shape of the machines. The look and feel of the computer controls. This will resemble the variation among thermostats from different HVAC manufacturers, or the dashboards of different automobiles. The type of conversion from heat to electricity; micro-turbines, thermoelectric devices, Stirling engines, possibly small piston steam engines, various different working fluids. Hydrogen stored in conventional pressure tanks versus hydrogen produced on demand with electrolysis. These differences will quickly be winnowed into a few basic designs for different market sectors. This will proceed more rapidly than it did for automobiles or personal computers because -- as I said in chapter 14 -- no one cares what a water heater looks like. People do not look at power generation equipment or heaters. Such equipment does not have features that most customers care about. The only two parameters that the customer looks for are reliability and low cost. There is such thing as customer loyalty to one particular design, or design appeal, as there is with things such as Mac computers or sports cars. So, market forces will all quickly winnow out all but the most cost-effective designs. - Jed
