Jouni Valkonen <jounivalko...@gmail.com> wrote: No, just simple formula and economic truth: energy = money. >
Here are some economic truths from 1840: ice = money bananas = money In the 1840s, in northern US states people would cut ice from Pons in the wintertime, store it under sawdust, and then send it by ship to Florida and other warm states were ice does not form. It was worth a terrific amount of money. In 1851, Dr. John Gorrie invented the first practical refrigerator to make ice for a sick patient (his wife, I think it was). In the 1880s refrigeration was greatly improved, and the value of ice dropped. It was no longer sent by ships, although there were still iceman delivering ice to housewives for ice boxes in the 1920s. Later people could make ice at home and it was worth nothing. Along the same lines, in the 19th century clipper ships occasionally brought bananas from Central and South America to the US. They sold for $0.50 each which was equivalent to about $10. A ship load of bananas was worth a fortune. One shipowner made a fortune bringing in one should vote successfully, and then tried again but the second time the wind was unfavorable and the entire shipment had to be dumped so he lost a fortune. After cold fusion becomes widespread, the cost of energy will fall by 2/3rds. A generation after that it will be worth ~100 times less than it is now and much later something like 10,000 times less. I base this on the the likely cost of equipment. The entire energy industry will bring in revenues roughly equivalent to the sales of bubblegum today (see chapter 2, footnote 51 in my book). To project future sales of cold fusion based on the present cost of fossil fuel makes no sense at all. It does make sense to project that many new devices will become possible in many extravagant uses of energy for things like megaprojects irrigating deserts will become possible, so economic growth in other areas may occur. - Jed
