In a discussion here, I said that cold fusion will reduce the "spikiness" in residential electric power demand. I referred the reader to chapter 15 of my book for evidence of this. It turns out I did not actually say this in that chapter. You have to read between the lines a little. Interpolate.
I showed why cold fusion will reduce overall domestic electric power, by directly powering a large fraction of demand for heating and air conditioning, with heat instead of electricity. Tables 15.1 and 15.2 show this breakdown, and the shift from electricity to cold fusion. Space heating and hot water heating in the U.S. is mostly done with natural gas now, so doing that with cold fusion would not would not reduce demand or spikes in electric power in most houses. In most case the shift would only be about 8% (Table 15.2). However, this 8% happens to be the most spiky of the remaining demand. The table is not intended to illustrate this point, so it is not quite the right breakdown. To be a little more specific, three big and spiky applications are moved to cold fusion: airconditioning, clothes drying, and refrigeration. These are about 12% of overall demand. Clothes dryer use is intermittent and causes a large increase in demand. Air conditioners turn on and off at unpredictable times all day long. When both are on, I think household demand might triple. If you eliminate them completely, so that your home generator electricity never has to cover them, you can reduce demand a lot. There is a handy demand estimation program at Lowe's that computes this, but it is not working at present. See: http://www.generatorsatlowes.com/?cm_sp=endeca-_-Generator-_-l The Centurion 20 kW standby gas-fired generator would easily meet the needs of my house in this scenario. (It cuts over automatically, not like the gasoline powered ones. It costs $4,500. Making it suitable for 24/7 year-round use would increase the cost. But heat pump motors and refrigerator compressors run intermittently year-round, so it is possible to make moving parts that are reliable for this kind of demand. A conventional chemical battery would also help smooth spikes, and would not add much to the cost. Here are the numbers from another on-line demand calculator: http://www.kohlerpower.com/residential/solutions/sizingcalculator.htm Here it is with a typical house with an electric water heater and dryer. I added a room airconditioner because they do not include central air or a heat pump. The Lowe's calculator is better for this, but anyway: Total Running Watts: 10720 W Total Starting Volt-Amps: 23100 VA Home Square Footage: 2000 Square Ft Appliances: *Dishwasher*Significant use700 W1500 VA*Microwave Oven*Significant use1200 W1200 VA*Refrigerator*Significant use500 W2000 VA*Water Heater (Electric)*Significant use4500 W4500 VA*TV*Significant use500 W500 VA*Personal Computer*Significant use700 W700 VA*Dehumidifier*Significant use1000 W1200 VA*Dryer (Electric)*Significant use5000 W6000 VA*Washer*Significant use700 W1300 VA*Room Air Conditioner*Significant use1200 W2200 VA*Furnace Fan*Significant use750 W2000 VA And here it is with stuff that can directly powered by cold fusion taken out: Total Running Watts: 5195 W Total Starting Volt-Amps: 9300 VA Home Square Footage: 2000 Square Ft Appliances: *Dishwasher*Significant use700 W1500 VA*Microwave Oven*Significant use1200 W1200 VA*TV*Significant use500 W500 VA*Personal Computer*Significant use700 W700 VA*Dehumidifier*Significant use1000 W1200 VA*Dryer (Gas)*Significant use500 W900 VA*Washer*Significant use700 W1300 VA*Furnace Fan*Significant use750 W2000 VA I put in "Dryer (Gas)" which still draws 500 W for the tumbler electric motor. As cold fusion improves, I expect this motor will be powered by the dryer's own internal cold fusion heat source, perhaps with thermoelectric conversion. Having to plug in the machine will be considered a nuisance. In the distant future, all machines will be self-powered, including computers, televisions and so on. Houses will not have power wiring. It is dangerous, after all. It can electrocute people or cause first, even if it is DC. In this calculator the "starting volt-amps" is an indication of spikiness. This calculator says that computers do not draw any extra current when they start up. That's not quite right, but it is mostly right. They draw a lot less as fraction of their running demand than, say, a furnace fan. Getting back to present-day technology, we make a distinction between "electric" appliances, that use power for moving parts, and "electronic" gadgets such as computers that move only electrons and maybe the muffin fan. Generally speaking, electric appliances such as dishwashers draw a lot more current than computers or televisions, and they are spiky. Many of these electric appliances can be powered directly with heat from cold fusion. Regarding illumination, I predict that even with cold fusion, people will use LED lighting. This may seem odd in view of the hysterical and irrational opposition to these lights by people who think incandescent Edison lights are better. The problem here is that these people are stupid. They waste money. Even if electricity costs nothing, the lifetime cost of a CFL or an LED bulb is cheaper because it lasts longer. Especially when it is left on for long periods. They are also more convenient. You only have to climb up and change the ones in ceiling lights every 20 years. In stores and offices, you have to pay someone to change burned out bulbs, which makes incandescent lights even more expensive. They never use them in offices because the people running these places know how to do arithmetic. The comment I made earlier, that cold fusion will not be a free lunch but rather "a lunch you are paid to eat" was made in the 1990s by an expert in CFL lighting. Incandescent lights also spew far more mercury into the environment and into your body than CFLs do, when you take into account mercury from burning coal. - Jed
