That is why I'm not fussed about why it works as long as it works and
the LCOE fits my target market. When either Leonardo or DGT announce
their Ac kWh devices, with prices, then we can determine into which
markets these devices can and can not be sold. For any new energy
generation technology, it is all about LCOE, reliability, market
acceptance and identifying the low hanging fruit before the other guy.
On 12/16/2011 9:37 AM, Jed Rothwell wrote:
Aussie Guy E-Cat <[email protected]
<mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
For the E-Cat or any other LENR generator to make inroads into the
global energy generation market, the LCOE per kWh of delivered
energy must be lower than from any other comparable energy sources
or there is simply no market for it.
Yup. That's a key point.
You mean a market for the device as a practical source of energy. A
person could sell eCats as experimental devices. You could sell
thousands at a premium price to laboratories worldwide. Later you
might even sell them as a novelty item, similar to today's high-end
electric cars. Toys for rich people. Early automobiles and
microcomputers were novelty items.
The top of the LCOE scale probably starts as a drop it in a remote
site (could be in outer space) somewhere and generate heat and
electricity. For that market the acceptable LCOE of the delivered
energy is very high.
Yup again. Other examples of critical power that people will pay a
premium for include: pacemaker batteries, heart assist pumps
(Ventricular Assist Device), hearing aid batteries, watch batteries,
remote telephone repeaters, cell phone batteries, aviation, and
highway sensors (now served by solar panels).
The technology has to be developed to a high state of reliability
before such applications can be served. The same goes for military
applications, as you pointed out.
For domestic situations the max acceptable LCOE drops quite a bit
and for on grid electricity generation the required LCOE hits rock
bottom.
Yup. Because of that, this is may be the last market you want to approach.
See Christensen, "The Innovator's Dilemma" for ideas about good
markets to begin with. This book introduces the concepts of disruptive
versus sustaining technology. These terms have become widely used
clichés in modern business, but people often misunderstand the
original concept. I discussed this book in chapter 7 of my book. I
highly recommend reading the original.
Christensen came out with a follow-up book which was also interesting.
It needs editing.
- Jed
