>From pagnucco: ...
> People who buy low and sell high are rewarded for improving the market > prediction, while those who buy high and sell low are punished for > degrading the market prediction. Evidence so far suggests that prediction > markets are at least as accurate as other institutions predicting the same > events with a similar pool of participants...." > > High profile media have covered LENR. Would a prediction market in LENR > also attract enough participants to be liquid? Perhaps with a wager like - > 'A Fortune 500 company announces an LENR product by 2015'? Fascinating. I think this has already been touched on within the Vort Collective, and fairly recently I might add. I recall Jed Rothwell bringing this topic to our attention concerning the occasionally surprising power of "collective" reasoning and how it sometimes turns out to be better than so-called professional/scientific analysis. It seems counter intuitive at first glance. But there you you have it. Someone should keep an eye out and report back to the Collective on whether any Fortune 500 LENR bets have been put on the table! My prediction: I'll wager an 80% chance that a F-500 Company will make some kind of a LENR consumer product announcement by 2015. What would I put up for collateral? A hearty handshake and a pat on the back! ... FWIW. ;-) Regards Steven Vincent Johnson www.OrionWorks.com www.zazzle.com/orionworks
