Japanese are importing massive amounts of LNG to compensate. The Asian LNG price has spiked to almost 4x US and 2x European price in last year based mostly on increased Japanese demand but it should come down over next couple of years as the market adapts (more LNG plants and Ships will be built).
If the Japanese are truly done with Nuclear then they have to switch to more natural gas, they had 50GW of nuclear which for combined cycle GT replacements costs about $500/kW or $25Billion. But building combined cycle GT plants takes a couple of years (and there are long lead items like 100MW+ transformers that take several years to get delivered). In shorter term they can simply increase their LNG imports using existing infrastructure and run it through large IC engine natural gas generator sets (costing just $200/kW at 1MW level, or $10billion for 50GW). A 1MW genset can be bought and installed in a matter of days at neighbourhood level, and they are quite efficient - about 42% vs 58% for a combined cycle GT plant. At current Asian LNG prices these Gensets can produce electricity for about $0.20/kWh, which isn't cheap, but is survivable. Consider that at $0.20/kWh a $200k 1MW genset will generate almost $1.5 million in electricity every year and you can see that their capital cost isn't too worrying. On 17 May 2012 19:02, Jed Rothwell <[email protected]> wrote: > There is still tremendous controversy in Japan about whether to re-open > any of the nuclear power plants. This summer, they are projecting a 20% > power shortage in the Osaka area, and 10 to 15% shortages elsewhere. Last > year they managed to cut consumption by 10% to 15% in some cities, but 20% > seems unreasonable to me. It would cause severe economic dislocations and > some deaths from elderly people. > > They are already stretched. Factories are doing emergency relocation of > production to other parts of the country. Production lines are running at > night and on weekends, and shutting down at peak hours. Commuting by > electric trains and work hours have been staggered, although for some > strange reason they refuse to implement daylight savings time. (They have > discussed it.) It is difficult for parents with school-age children because > the schools are on standard time. > > There is some talk of turning on the Osaka area reactors, which are > located far from the city. The ones I have seen on the map are on the other > side of Honshu. Some of the local people around the reactors are in favor > of turning them on again, because they are losing jobs and population with > the reactors off. Others are opposed. The mayor of Osaka, a popular young > politician, is opposed. He thinks the city would be threatened by an > accident. It would take an accident a lot worse than Fukushima to reach the > city. > > It is complicated, but the overall message from the voters is clear: > nuclear power is not acceptable. It must be abandoned completely now, or > phased out quickly. > > I do not think any Japanese politician will stand against public opinion > on this. It would be like an American politician saying: "we should put a > tax of $3 per gallon on gasoline to pay for the wars in the Middle East." > > If I were them, I would turn on most of the nukes now, especially the > newer ones. Then I would phase them out in 10 to 20 years. > > I hate to think of all the coal they are burning. Their fossil fuel > consumption has gone through the roof. There is risk in that, too. > > - Jed > >
